Letter from the D-G

[Simon Lovell]

Hi All,
Thought you may be interested in the below response to an email, from the D-G of TMR, Neil Scales.

IIRC, I was mainly bagging the missing crossover at Coopers Plains in my comments about poorly executed infrastructure projects.

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[ozbob]

G'day Simon,

Thanks for sharing that. 

Looking forward to #qldvotes ...

[Simon Lovell]

I'll believe a change in government in QLD in 2015 when I see it.  A reduction in majority is a given, but the degree is a question.

[STB]

That just seems like typical political PR fluff without any real response.

For the record, I'm predicting an LNP win again (unfortunately - I think the swing will be big, but not big enough), but certainly a reduced majority.  Ol' Campbell is definitely gone IMO, there's no way he will win Ashgrove, so a new Premier is certain.  I'm also predicting a fairly large PUP/Independent/KAP vote in traditional conservative electorates as a protest vote towards the LNP from disgruntled and disappointed conservative voters, so I'm thinking that the opposition will be a mixed bag of ALP (majority) and a bunch of KAP/PUP and a few independents thrown in.

[Simon Lovell]

That just seems like typical political PR fluff without any real response.

I disagree.  It had a number of "no"s and a few maybes.  No yeses, but at least you can see the points to pick on from that.

[techblitz]

That just seems like typical political PR fluff without any real response.

I disagree.  It had a number of "no"s and a few maybes.  No yeses, but at least you can see the points to pick on from that.

seconded...a good indepth response by mr scales 

[#Metro]

It is a credit that they responded in detail and didn't send a zero-information fluff piece.

That said there are some points:

1. You cannot claim "demand" as the reason for poor train frequency. Waiting time is a cost and when an extra service is put on, this cost decreases. In the case of a 30 minute train cycle, a reduction of 15 minutes waiting time is huge. This is the Mohring effect, also known as a 'network' effect - an additional train makes connections far more reliable, lowers the waiting time costs, induces more pax to travel. This is what has driven BUZ growth over the last 10 years and there is factual data for this in Brisbane.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohring_effect

In addition to this, the BUZ experience in Brisbane (so can't claim 'its a different city, won't work here!) shows that Sunday and weekend growth absolutely EXPLODED when new services were put on to the point where Sunday services were carrying more pax than weekdays.

The high cost of rail is a huge factor in poor frequencies - this is because we still use guards and this effectively DOUBLES the cost which means half as much service km can be bought with the same money. Claiming 'the cost' is only part truth, there is just MASSIVE MIND BLOWING inefficiency withing QR due to the use of guards. Rail supply costs in Brisbane are approximately 100% higher than Perth, which runs near-identical trains made in the same factory, on the same gauge with the same overhead power supply.

Add to this a competing BCC bus network which is siphoning passengers as well, and you can see the issue.

[ozbob]

Official letters reflect Government policy. DGs are there to carry out the Governments directives.  Government policy can turn on a two cent piece ... particularly leading up to an election.

Cash fares:  tacit acknowledgement that paper will go with the next generation ticketing, that is how I interpret that.

Infrastructure:  There is no real defence to the mediocrity that has been inflicted on the masses.  We can only hope that the corner has been turned.  Darra - Richlands - Springfield was a good effort over all.  The fact that there is a flyover at Petri for MBRL is another encouraging sign.

Fares:  Is just essentially the standard spin. 

Still good of Mr Scales to respond with some detail on the other matters.

[Simon Lovell]

Official letters reflect Government policy. DGs are there to carry out the Governments directives.  Government policy can turn on a two cent piece ... particularly leading up to an election.

Cash fares:  tacit acknowledgement that paper will go with the next generation ticketing, that is how I interpret that.

Yes.

Agree.

Fares:  Is just essentially the standard spin. 

Still good of Mr Scales to respond with some detail on the other matters.

Yep, they've definitely dug in their heels on fares.  Not that surprising.  I knew that they wouldn't back away from their election promise.

And agree that it was good.  I'll send a thank you email.

[techblitz]

You cannot claim "demand" as the reason for poor train frequency.

When less passengers are using the network at those specified times...you are well within your rights...

[ozbob]

But there is also the fact the demand is often not there because the frequency is poor. 

Off peak services on the FG line were not that well loaded before the 15 minute frequency.  Frequency has increased demand.

But at present, there simply is not any real resources  (funds) crew or trains to boost service levels generally.  An anti-public transport fare system is another issue of course.

[#Metro]

When less passengers are using the network at those specified times...you are well within your rights...

Rail represents the PT backbone. Services should be 15 minutes until 7pm, all lines except Doomben and beyond Caboolture.
Doing this will lower costs in the bus network due to restructuring the network. Install ATP and convert guards to drivers - you
unlock another level of efficiency and costs/passenger can go down another level.

With the Kippa Ring line opening, hi frequency all day and into the evening will be possible, just as it is now through to Darra on the Ips line.

BUZ experience, little reason why this cannot be replicated by rail:


Source: http://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/bitstream/2123/6058/1/thredbo10-themeA-Warren.pdf

Train supply costs are simply too high - of course there are not enough funds if it costs 2x more than Perth to operate the same train.
If we look at, for example, Perth's Fremantle line, this runs at 15 minute frequencies on Saturday and Sunday. Perth is no Tokyo. http://www.transperth.wa.gov.au/timetablepdfs/Fremantle%20Line%2020130718.pdf

Perth's Midland line - also 15 minutes on Sat and Sunday http://www.transperth.wa.gov.au/timetablepdfs/Midland%20Line%2020130718.pdf

Brisbane is an embarrassment, and things need to change. Bring in ATP!

[Simon Lovell]

Interested to hear from colinw.

I think Neil Scales is dead right on one point - if we want a fix for the Melbourne St portal, we should be lobbying BCC.  I think the best path is an E-Petition signed by as many BCC residents as possible.  Anyone prepared to submit such a petition?

[ozbob]

^

http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=10773.msg143257#msg143257


--> http://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/about-council/council-information-rates/news-publications/council-annual-plan-budget-2014-15

--> http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/brisbane-city-council-budget-bus-bottleneck-roadworks-bikeways-ferry-stops-funded-20140618-zsd3r.html

Already happening ..

[Simon Lovell]

^

http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=10773.msg143257#msg143257


--> http://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/about-council/council-information-rates/news-publications/council-annual-plan-budget-2014-15

--> http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/brisbane-city-council-budget-bus-bottleneck-roadworks-bikeways-ferry-stops-funded-20140618-zsd3r.html

Already happening ..

My reading is that is to allow two 14.5m rigid tri-axles to pass each other easily at the intersection.  At the moment, one usually waits for the other, and there have been a few accidents.  A worthwhile improvement, no doubt.

What I´m suggesting is still being left undone.

[ozbob]

I think that will be all Simon.  With the BaT 'promise' on the horizon it is difficult to see that they will do much more than that.  The other wild card is bus competitive tendering.  There might be further network changes as a consequence of that as well.

[Simon Lovell]

I think that will be all Simon.

And therein lies my problem.

[Simon Lovell]

Fares:  Is just essentially the standard spin. 

Well, I think the less said in the lead up to the election re:fares, the better.  The more they say, the more they'll dig their heels in on 9 then free.

[ozbob]

Fares:  Is just essentially the standard spin. 

Well, I think the less said in the lead up to the election re:fares, the better.  The more they say, the more they'll dig their heels in on 9 then free.

I expect we will see some changes.  Privately they admit it is a failure.  Publicly they keep up the charade.

Farce!

I have no intention of easing up.  And I expect others will be moving forward with new ticketing policies as well.

Cheers!