Article: Four million Brisbaneites "complete madness": Dick Smith

[ozbob]

From the Brisbanetimes click here!

Four million Brisbaneites "complete madness": Dick Smith

Four million Brisbaneites "complete madness": Dick Smith
August 22, 2012 - 11:45AM
Katherine Feeney

Slow down or blow up is the population message entrepreneur Dick Smith will bring to town this week as he delivers a talk on why Brisbane residents "would be absolute fools" to allow their city's greater population to number 4.4 million people as projected for 2031.

Following comments from the head of Infrastructure Partnerships Australia that governments must urgently find a way to accommodate double the current population in the next ten years, Mr Smith said Brisbane's current 2.1 million residential figure was just right.

    If you go to four million you will destroy your way of life, you will have your kids all living in 80-storey high-rises like termites, and it would just be complete madness 

He said children would be living "like termites", and "complete madness" would reign, if the population didn't stop growing along the lines drawn by latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which reveal how the region is growing.

But Mr Smith's concerns aren't shared by the state's political leaders.

A spokesman for Premier Campbell Newman said the Liberal National Party government was focused on planning for a larger population by delivering major infrastructure projects in southeast Queensland.

Acknowledging growth was putting pressure in the region, he said decentralisation would also assist sustainable development and meet housing supply targets set in the previous government's SEQ Regional Plan 2009-2031.

Lord Mayor Graham Quirk also saw Brisbane's population growth as positive, as long as it was "appropriately managed" by all levels of government.

Cr Quirk said Mr Smith was entitled to his views, but planners couldn't afford to put their "head in the sand and hope for the best".

"I'm very much about planning Brisbane's future and I'm the first to acknowledge we've got to grow sustainably and there are challenges that go with that," he said.

"However trying to artificially stunt population growth by limiting housing supply only forces up house prices and the cost of living, which would cost jobs, not create them.

"The better option is to ensure Brisbane can generate enough employment to match this growth and support it with the right types of housing, transport and services."

Mr Smith said he wasn't for population control but he was for "telling people the truth and showing leadership that growth is impossible in a finite world.

"You would be absolute fools in Brisbane to go to that number of people because when you get to four million they'll want to go to eight million, because the only reason you need to get to four million is to continue growth because everyone is frightened that if we don't have growth, you can't make money," he said.

"If I said, 'When you get to a trillion trillion in Brisbane, will that be enough?'. Of course people say, 'Well don't be ridiculous,' so they actually admit that one day you have to stop growing, and my suggestion is that you do it sooner not later.

"If you go to four million you will destroy your way of life, you will have your kids all living in 80-storey high-rises like termites, and it would just be complete madness - I'd say about what you have now is an ideal population number."

Mr Smith said a population in excess of four million people would widen the gap between the wealthy and the middle-class, and lower the standard of living overall.

University of Canberra population expert Robert Tanton said this reasoning was sound, but theoretically Brisbane could sustain a larger population with sound resource management policies in place.

As the regional and urban modelling research director at National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, Associate Professor Tanton said heavy urban growth resulted in segregated communities and higher crime rates.

"We see that already see that segregation in areas of Brisbane where there are particular suburbs that are very high income and those that are low income – they don't tend to be near each other," he said.

"That divide becomes more pronounced with growth."

But maintaining quality of life also hinged on access to food and water and sound town planning, Mr Tanton said.

And thanks to a "reasonably good" transport system, food and water could be moved to urban areas with relative ease, Mr Tanton said.

"We are a very urbanised country and the majority live in capital cities, so there's the theory we will be able to continue to grow as long as we can continue to farm the Murray-Darling areas and supply resources to the cities," he said.

"But the problem is the people [in the Murray-Darling regions] move to the city, so you have fewer people in the basin to provide food, and while many farmers there have become more efficient at producing the same amount with fewer people, there are limits."

For these reasons, Mr Tanton prescribed local, state and federal governments adopt a "more measured approach" when it came to setting targets for population and infrastructure.

Mr Tanton also said it was important to consider findings outlined in the Australian Centre on Quality of Life's Wellbeing Index which used research spearheaded by Professor Robert Cummins at Deakin University.

The index found wellbeing increased the further out from major metropolitan centres people lived, Mr Tanton said.

"In that regard, you shouldn't live in the city because there's much higher wellbeing in the regional centres – not far-out isolated rural places, but major regional hubs," he said.

"While they're great and they're quite an efficient way for people to come together to work and play, there does tend to be lower wellbeing in big cities."

Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/four-million-brisbaneites-complete-madness-dick-smith-20120820-24iax.html#ixzz24EqUkGqd

[SurfRail]

Knowing Dick Smith I suspect his main beef is that all those highrises would interfere with his private hobby (ie flying).

[Fares_Fair]

Knowing Dick Smith I suspect his main beef is that all those highrises would interfere with his private hobby (ie flying).

[Gazza]

"If you go to four million you will destroy your way of life, you will have your kids all living in 80-storey high-rises like termites, and it would just be complete madness - I'd say about what you have now is an ideal population number.

Ugh, hate these sort of framing arguments, like its a choice between urban sprawl, and 80 storey high rises.

In reality, density can be achieved in many ways.....
Those European cities, which are dense enough to have sucessful mass transit etc, rarely have many high rises.

Singapore and Hong Kong yeah, but thats because those places have nowhere else to go so they need to be saving space right now.

[cartoonbirdhaus]

When he said "termites," did he really mean Manhattanites? 

In reality, density can be achieved in many ways.....
Those European cities, which are dense enough to have sucessful mass transit etc, rarely have many high rises.

Typical development in Europe seems to be an even spread of 4-6 storey apartment blocks. That would be a good model for areas being built from scratch. On the other hand, Vancouver has a mixture of high-rise and detached houses. So Brisbane could fit more than 4 million without cheek-by-jowl highrise being the only option. No need to be so polarised and myopic!

[SurfRail]

What will likely happen is the BCC and GCCC areas will continue to densify at a rate much faster than the surrounding LGAs.  If you want a reasonably priced suburban home, you won't be likely to live anywhere inbound of zone 4 or 5.  They will have to make hard decisions about just how much tin and timber is going to be kept and how much can be redeveloped.

[ozbob]

From the Brisbanetimes click here!

Population sweet spot: How big should Brisbane grow?

Population sweet spot: How big should Brisbane grow?
August 23, 2012 - 3:00AM Katherine Feeney

From a 'big country town' to the second-fastest-growing region in Australia: how big is too big for Brisbane?

According to estimates used to draft the latest South East Queensland Regional Plan, substantial growth is expected to see the greater region grow to house 4.4 million people by 2031.

In the plan, due for review in 2014, that population is spread over 11 regional and city councils including the Gold and Sunshine coasts, and requires 754,000 additional homes to have been built between 2006 and 2031 to accommodate the increase.

The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the population of the Greater Brisbane Region (which excludes the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast) was 2.15 million people at July 2011, a figure nearly half the state's population of 4.47 million people.
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With an increase of 432,300 people between 2001 and 2011, greater Brisbane had the second-fastest growth of all capital cities in Australia of that decade, falling just behind greater Perth, which increased by 26 per cent (slightly higher than Brisbane's 25 per cent).

Figures from council show the population forecast for the Brisbane City Council region alone has it growing from 1,041,839 residents in 2011 to 1,272,272 by 2031.

Experts say the Brisbane area can sustain population growth as long as resources can be accessed, and planning policy keeps up, though some question the bigger-is-better wisdom.

We put the following question to various stakeholders in the future of Brisbane. Their responses are below.

Q: What is the ideal population for the greater Brisbane region and why do you think that number is the right size?

Jane Prentice, Liberal National Party Federal Member for Ryan

Brisbane – Australia's new world city. Indeed as Bernard Salt has said previously – Brisbane is the aspirational capital of Australia. We now have a population size that can support new and innovative business and a government with a "can do" approach. As a former Brisbane City Councillor, I understand the need to plan for growth.

Historically Brisbane suffered from being planned as a penal colony – not a future state capital. More recently, Labor state governments and councils have failed to build key infrastructure not only to service the population of the day but for future population growth. Fortunately this is now changing with the realisation of TransApex and other key projects.

However, what we really need for good planning is certainty. Certainty as to what type of growth the community wants to see and where it should occur. Certainty as to the protection of critical bushland. Certainty as to the provision of key community facilities – such as parks, libraries and outreach services; and certainty as to key infrastructure and essential services (like water supply) for the future.

To be a new world city we also need to encourage initiative and foster innovation and enterprise and facilitate the arts – not through hand-outs – but through hand-ups and capacity building; and a reduction in red tape. Facilitate competition and get government out of the way.

We also need to build on our relationship with our near neighbours in the Asia Pacific region – not only through business and trade but also education, sport and the arts.

With other airports in close proximity to Brisbane and our modern port facilities, Brisbane is well positioned to be the gateway to Australia – in more ways than one.

We cannot set an arbitrary population figure until the basic foundations are in place. When we have the appropriate infrastructure then we can support an increased population.

Larissa Waters, Australian Greens Senator for Queensland

I've grown up in Brisbane and I love it. It's a wonderful place to raise a family and it should count amongst the world's liveable cities.

But every place has its limits – and there is only so much energy, water, housing and food that can be directed to the city of Brisbane. All over Australia, and all over the world, towns, cities and countries are discovering there are ecological limits to how much human population growth the planet can sustain.

Before we decide how big Brisbane should be, we need to do the research to first understand the limits to how big Brisbane can be. With unrestrained population growth, the very qualities that we love Brisbane for are at risk. Our beautiful parklands and arts spaces make way for more housing, and housing prices, already so high, become unaffordable for many. Our schools, hospitals, public transport and other services feel the strain of servicing more people than they can provide for, and we start to lose our quality of life.

For so long we've equated growth with prosperity, but this isn't necessarily the case – we can have prosperity, and a wonderful quality of life, without population growth. Let's take a good, hard look at how much growth we truly need, and can afford, before we rush ahead to a Brisbane too big to sustain itself.

Maha Sinnathamby, Chairman, Springfield Land Corporation

People have been arguing about south-east Queensland's population for as long as there have been traffic jams on the M1 and certainly as long as we have been building Greater Springfield, which will celebrate its 20th birthday in October.

I understand the very legitimate worries about resourcing and servicing ever-growing cities but progress is inevitable – particularly when this state has so much to offer in terms of lifestyle and opportunity - so the challenge is to control it, direct it and use it to our advantage.

In my mind, the solution to south-east Queensland's growing pains is to plan. Developers, governments and councils have a duty to provide forward-looking infrastructure and planning flexibility which can support the evolution of sustainable centres outside Brisbane CBD, and sustain hubs where multiple demographics can live, work and play.

By catering to the long-term needs of a community - that is, mapping out their transport, health, education, business and technological needs beyond the next election cycle – it won't matter if the region's population is two million or 20 million.

Greater Springfield is proof it can be done. Whilst most cities grow organically – Greater Springfield, like Canberra, was a planned city from its inception, and is the only other planned city in Australia. Its equivalent population is forecast to quadruple to more than 105,000 by 2030 (which includes 30,000 workers) but we are ready and excited to welcome anyone looking for the perfect place to call home.

Milton Dick, Leader of the Opposition, Brisbane City Council

The population projections within the SEQ Regional Plan are appropriate if council and the state can both deliver on their responsibility to build new, and upgrade existing, infrastructure.

Brisbane city faces the unique predicament of facing significant growth while having a limited space in which to grow.

To face these challenges, Brisbane City Council can't just take the easy decisions.

As a council we must challenge ourselves to make tough decisions and invest in much needed upgrades of existing infrastructure like Wynnum Road and Kingsford Smith Drive.

We need to plan for future growth and ensure that we have development in the right places with the infrastructure to support that population growth.

Matthew Wallace, President, Urban Development Institute of Australia Queensland branch

Greater Brisbane can easily cater for a larger population provided governments of all levels appropriately plan for and deliver the necessary infrastructure. UDIA believes that a growing population, serviced by appropriate and expanding infrastructure, is good for the economic and social welfare of Brisbane residents. Congestion, housing affordability and infrastructure including roads, sewer and water shortfalls can all be appropriately managed through co-ordinated planning. The UDIA considers that a larger Brisbane population can also be a "sustainable" population. In recent years developers have increasingly adopted a sustainable approach to their projects in response to legislation enacted by the various layers of government and as a result of industry-driven environmentally sustainable initiatives, such as EnviroDevelopment.

UDIA sees major benefits in a larger and growing population, including in areas of workforce participation, productivity, and alleviating the fiscal impact of an ageing population.

Much of Brisbane's growth can be achieved through infill development. The Brisbane Statistical Division currently has a population density of 350 people per square kilometre – well below Melbourne's 540 people per square kilometre. Indeed the state government's South East Queensland Regional Plan envisages more than three quarters of new dwellings constructed between now and 2031 will be infill rather than greenfield.

Kathy Mac Dermott, Executive Director, Property Council of Australia Queensland branch

Individuals, governments or organisations that define an ideal population for a region are misleading the community. Growth across Australia's cities and regions is inevitable, and Brisbane is no exception. The important issue is how we deal with this growth.

Smart growth means more opportunities, higher productivity and better living standards. Dumb growth means more stress on transport, jobs and families and higher taxes into the future.

Promoting a population cap masked as an 'ideal population' embodies dumb growth. It says we don't need to plan properly for growth because we will just stop it from happening. With good planning the Brisbane region could accommodate a much larger population.

Those that have a role to play in planning for growth need to work harder to engage the community in a genuine conversation on this issue. The Property Council is playing our part through our "Make My City Work" national campaign.

This campaign directly engages the community in a conversation about how their city will grow. As part of the campaign we have developed the "Our Nation App" which lets people explore the population growth projections for their city as well as providing information on how this will translate into the need for infrastructure such as schools or hospital beds. You can join the campaign and explore the app at www.makemycitywork.com.au.

Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/population-sweet-spot-how-big-should-brisbane-grow-20120822-24mgm.html#ixzz24IOsLyEO

[Mr X]

Dick Smith is always going on about the same old crap of 'overpopulation' and 'we're doomed if we get an extra 1 million people and everyone will be forced to live like rabbits in 999 storey buildings in slumville' and it just never happens. Sure our infrastructure clearly has not kept up with the growth or the past but we're not headed for a doomsday end of civilisation like he would make us believe.

[ozbob]

My blog comment:

The reality is that growth will continue for some time. What needs to occur is that we need to change our broader community thinking from a car centric mode to more sustainable transport options. The rail network needs to be expanded. More support for active transport - not only bicycles but walking. More people walk than any other mode.

Inner Brisbane does not need any more new roads, development needs to be focussed from here on public and active transport.

Consideration will need to given to congestion or cordon tolling. Vehicle registration charges based on distances travelled.

Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/population-sweet-spot-how-big-should-brisbane-grow-20120822-24mgm.html