Article: Train or bus? The choice is poor

[ozbob]

From the Brisbanetimes click here!

Train or bus? The choice is poor

Train or bus? The choice is poor
Daniel Hurst
April 20, 2009 - 7:26AM

The State Government has come under fire for predicting the number of commuters using a busy Brisbane railway line will decrease over the next 20 years.

A Government-backed planning report suggests construction of the Eastern Busway will allow authorities to delay expensive track, station and carriage upgrades along the Cleveland railway line.

Daily passenger numbers between Coorparoo and Buranda train stations will drop by 2 per cent on 2006 levels as commuters flock to the new busway services, it claims.

But rail advocates and the State Opposition have rubbished the predictions, insisting the 20-year forecast is wrong.

The tussle reignites debate over how commuters who are close to train and bus services decide which option to take.

The Eastern Busway will allow residents in Brisbane's eastern suburbs to travel into the city using a dedicated bus corridor.

Services will feed into the existing South East Busway at Buranda. The first stage between the Princess Alexandra Hospital and the existing South East Busway is due for completion later this year.

Work on the Coorparoo to Buranda section will begin this year and should be finished by 2012.

It is unclear how long commuters will have to wait to see the final stages built between Carindale and Capalaba, although transport authorities have previously said these sections were not needed until 2026.

The predicted decline in passenger numbers on the Cleveland railway line is included in the State Government's Eastern Busway Concept Design and Impact Management Plan.

The 92-page traffic report within the document said daily rail patronage between Coorparoo and Buranda would drop from 24,338 passengers in 2006 to 23,762 passengers in 2026.

If the busway was not built, however, the predicted increase in rail patronage would be 29 per cent.

"A consequence of the busway would be the deferral of expenditure on track upgrades, increased station capacity and rolling stock," the document says.

The State Government is standing by the report's findings, with Queensland Transport describing the rail patronage forecasts as "our best estimate at this point in time".

But Rail Back on Track spokesman Robert Dow said he believed patronage on the Cleveland railway line would significantly increase.

"The best estimates have been shown to be wrong in the past," he said.

Mr Dow said the capacity of busways was limited to about 15,000 to 18,000 passengers an hour, compared with 30,000 to 50,000 for rail.

"Busways are good, but they'll only carry so much - what are we going to do with the excess?"

A Queensland Transport spokesman said the Eastern Busway would follow a more direct route to the central business district through major hubs like Carindale, whereas the railway line took a "circuitous route".

"Passengers who may consider rail over bus to try and avoid the congestion on Old Cleveland Road would shift to bus once the busway is in place, as it will offer reliability and travel time improvements," he said.

But Mr Dow said people would prefer to catch a train if services were frequent and the Government needed to ensure single-track sections of the Cleveland railway line were duplicated to allow more efficient services.

Opposition transport spokeswoman Fiona Simpson also disputed the predicted fall in rail passenger numbers.

"I'm concerned that Labor will use these long-term projections as an excuse to delay desperately needed upgrades to the Cleveland line rail services.," she said.

However, Queensland Transport said spending decisions on the railway network were subject to "continual review".

"The Queensland Government is committed to further investments in the Cleveland rail line as and

when they are needed, subject to demand and needs," the spokesperson said.

[Otto]

I am wondering how the busway will cope in the future.
Right now, it is common to have a bus jam of up to 20 buses in the am peak stuck between Buranda/Wooloongabba inbound and Mater Hill stations.

[mufreight]

Otto, you must be delusional, just because you drive a bus and think this happens because you sit on the busway going nowhere you must be halucinating because Translink who never mislead the public, denies that this occours and the highly inteligent planners there are claim that there will be bo problems with the busway accomodating even more buses when they increase the numbers of services committed to the busways, but then maybe it is their intention to duplicate the busways.
It has been suggested that they create a super bus by coupling strings of buses together on the busways and operating them in formation similar to a train.
And the cow jumped over the moon etc.

[stephenk]

Otto has a good point. There is already congestion on the inner South Eastern Busway. Things can only get worse as more bus routes are added.

The impact of the Eastern Busway will only affect the inner sections of the Cleveland Line. Even if passenger numbers decreased on the inner section, passenger numbers will still increase on the outer stretches of the line. Thus I would expect that the Eastern Busway is going to make a small dent in the overall growth forecast for the Cleveland Line.

The inner city rail capacity study states that by 2010 the Cleveland Line requires stabling at Thorneside, duplication between Birkdale and Wellington Point, and Ormiston to Cleveland. As far as I'm aware work hasn't even started on planning these infrastructure improvements which will benefit the whole system, not just the Cleveland Line.

[O_128]

COME ON QUEENSLAND

If we are going to build a busway system make it light rail to start with.Also you may as well connect the busway from capalaba to birkdale or cleveland to allow interchange. What a wast of money why does cooparoo need 2 stations the millions of dollars needed to build this would be much better spent on a birkdale to capalaba raillink. duplication from manly to cleveland, triplication from manly to cannon hill and a extension from cleveland to redlands which is a booming area instead the government is wasting money on rubbish. if a busway is needed jsut widen old cleveland road for bus lanes

[Jon Bryant]

This study must assume that the current system has more capacity than demand.  Whilst 2% of current passengers may take the busway (because it is closer than the railline or quciker) there is plently of latent demand along the Cleveland line that will fill the 2% in a day or two.  The author has never caught a train on the Cleveland line.  I do daily and it is a sardines can most days.

The study must also make the fatal mistake that all our current transport planning makes and that is it assume that public transport will only max at around 8-10%.  The truth is it can be 60% if the service is frequent and compprehensive. 

I also agree that all busways hould be converted to light rail now with feeder buses to stations.  The congestion of buses at the inner busway stations is mad, creates a dangerous scramble for buses and the buses (mainly those that become feeder routes off the busway) are not always full either. 

[WTN]

The eastern busway isn't replacing the Cleveland line, but comes close in a few areas (Park Road to Coorparoo I believe).  So it doesn't make sense that one mode will greatly reduce patronage on the other.  They will simply cater to different areas, apart from where they are close enough to be even considered a choice.  Those common areas could also increase patronage as they can feed each other.  Patronage will also grow with the population so it's a poor choice to neglect either mode.

As for converting busways to light rail, I can see problems being moved to station interchanges, unless light rail goes beyond the busway.  Take route 174/175 for example.  The peak outbound services are often very loaded (standing room only, or no room at all) by the time it leaves Adelaide St.  It stays very much that way until Wooloongabba station (if you're lucky) or beyond where it progresses along Logan Rd.  If passengers were to catch light rail up until Wooloongabba, the transfer bus will often be very full from the start.  So the issue with overcrowding is only slightly reduced and moved further down the line.

[Otto]

The eastern busway isn't replacing the Cleveland line, but comes close in a few areas (Park Road to Coorparoo I believe).  So it doesn't make sense that one mode will greatly reduce patronage on the other. 

That's not what the original report meant.
In a nutshell, they are saying that once the Eastern busway is completed to Capalaba, The Bus trip from Cleveland to the City will be quicker (than the train) and more reliable than it is at present. Also, more frequent. Most Commuters from Cleveland and also Ormiston ( as Ormiston is effectively the overflow carpark for Cleveland.. you need to be a local to understand ) will be very tempted to change from train to bus travel simply because of the time taken by each mode and closer stops with the bus. Cleveland and Ormiston account for a very large percentage of commuters using the train to the city. That is why the planners have predicted the change in patronage on the trains as they have.

As an aside,
Back in the late 80's, there was an express bus service that ran all day between Cleveland and the City known as the 'Bayside Bullet'. This service was in direct competition with the opening of the 'new' train service to Cleveland. off peak frequency was every 30 minutes and proved to be very popular with city travellers as the times were quicker than the train. The Bullet only had about 7 stops between Cleveland and the City on its original route. It was a winner for the bus company and also the traffic was nothing like it is today so the trips were fast.
The downfall of the service came as a result of extra stops being put in over time, slowing it down till eventually, future depot owners made it an all stops regular service. During this 'downgrading' of the service, passengers flocked to the trains which became the faster option...

[O_128]

With current development happening in  redlands,capalaba and tingalpa services must be improved. travel time to Cleveland would be reduced if the track was duplicated. it would be much samrter to extend the cleveland line to redalnds and build a spur to caplalaba

[Dean Quick]

If our so-called planning and transport experts were'nt so fixated on stinking, polluting rubber tyred buses and actually considered the future needs of commuters in this city by building a fast modern and efficient heavy/light rail line then we would have no need for this discussion. Instead we now have a half baked, ill concieved and planned polluting BUSWAY.What a joke. The bean counters and snotty nosed bureaucrates have too much input into such projects of importance.

[Jon Bryant]

Well said Dean Q. 

My thoughts on converting the busways and trunk bus routes to light rail (which could be wrong thus intersted in others views) is based on:

1. the establishment of 'trunk' routes that continue through the CBD or major centre and stick to the major roads/busways/thoroughfares (e.g the 109 tram in Melbourne).  The       111 should go from from Springwood to Chermside maybe even Aspley.
2. the establsihment of trunk routes that criss-cross the city on major roads (e.g. the good old 69 in Melbourne that goes from Kew to St kilda. Doesn't even go near the city)
3. construct all weather trams stops at the commercial centres along the major roads with stops every 800 metres in between (if necessary)
3. removal of bus routes that wander all around the suburbs on the way in between commerical centres;
4. the establishmet of local feeder bus route in each suburb that drops people at the local tram stop/comercial centre or allows less mobile to travel around the suburb. 

My thoughts on wher we should build heavy rail lines are well and truely covered in the New Lines area.

Views?

[dwb]

Bus verse Rail... is it so simple?

Already Brisbane Transport buses carry more passenger trips per year than QR's entire SEQ passenger network (and not by a little bit by a lot!).

Busways under the current operational approach can carry ~20k passenger movements per hour per direction in one lane.  A two track railway operating under current QR operational approach can carry roughly the same number of passengers in one direction (20x1000pax per 6-car-train - 1 train every 3mins).

Trains have significantly larger turning radii than busways. Busways can therefore be built by 'dodging' costly resumptions or tricky geotechnical conditions. Busways can also allow local services to access the express route - a major determinant of why busways have a proven greater geographic coverage than rail use.

Many people on this forum would argue rail is more comfortable or somehow inherently superior. However many people I know prefer bus/busway travel over rail. This is qualitatively confirmed through discussions with my family, friends, colleagues, but also through some focus group research I had the benefit recently of sitting in on.

Busways can also be built bit-by-bit (which although makes it more expensive in the long run than just building it at once) fitting current practical political and budget constraints. Railways cannot be.

Buses these days are much cleaner than they used to be (either CNG or EEV diesel). In comparison to private travel they still result in a reduction of pollution if maintaining the same number of trips.

[dwb]

Light rail versus buses on busway... a simple discussion?

Why is it that train buffs and greenies are always dreaming of turning the busway into light rail?

Those clinging to the belief that light rail should replace the busways (both future and current) fail to understand the characteristics of each mode and the actual numbers behind it.

I'd recommend an indepth look at the figures contained in the CDIMPs from Eastern Busway and Gold Coast Light Rail - you might actually be surprised by what you find.

[ozbob]

At the moment bus carries more (passenger trips  BT bus 68 million cf. rail 61 million), simply because there has been a massive expansion in the bus number relative to trains, and this is the characteristic of bus. As trains start to catch up I expect though in five years passenger trips on rail will almost equal bus, and in terms of passenger kilometres rail much more (already is).  What I think is important is to develop a properly integrated public transport network using the strengths of both, and that is starting to happen to a certain extent.

Rail is well suited to line transport.  When 15 minute off peak frequency is rolled out with the commensurate peak increases there will be lot more people moved by rail.  Bus is more flexible, and well suited to the local collection and feeder roles.  Of concern though is the fact that the busways are already starting to reach capacity. 

Otto has stated above:

I am wondering how the busway will cope in the future.
Right now, it is common to have a bus jam of up to 20 buses in the am peak stuck between Buranda/Wooloongabba inbound and Mater Hill stations.

The busways have been built with a view to possible light rail use, although I doubt that will happen.

Most people I know prefer trains.  I think it depends on where they live!   

[dwb]

But should we be promoting increasing kms travelled per person irrespective of mode?? ie there is no doubt that GC>BNE is best done by rail not bus, but do we really want to have lots of ppl doing this?! At the moment I'd only suggest rail is slightly better than car but I honestly don't think we should be promoting these kinds of trips day in day out at all, even by rail.... and if the land use was done right they wouldn't need to!

[ozbob]

Yes, that is where the shift in urban planning needs to come about.  As south-east Queensland has developed based on a road/car model the transport problems are now really come home to roost.  TODs are fine, but how many people can be so accommodated?  We will always have the need for long haul line transport - Springfield Ripley Valley being a classic case.  North Coast line and so forth. Hopefully this time public transport will be considered long before it becomes another crisis.

Chris Hale in the article today Article: Walk off the transport blues makes a good point.  Road building ceased years ago in many progressive cities.

[STB]

Personally IMO with bus vs train is as follows.

Bus/Busways - Postives
Cheaper to build and maintain
Faster to build than railways and can be built in stages
Can serve a much larger geographic area with smaller impact on the community eg: resumptions
Not reliant on overhead wires ie: can operate during blackouts
Acts as a railway just with tyres, can bypass traffic jams

Bus/Busways - Negative
Slightly smaller level of passenger capacity compared to rail.
Busway is limited to approximately 300 buses/hour
Large number of routes can be daunting for passengers not used to catching public transport
Generally a negative view on buses compared with trains in some circumstances, although this can be just a mindset and not reality
The longer the route the more likely it can become unreliable

Trains/Railways - Positives
Has a slightly larger capacity of carrying passengers
Can cover large distances effectively
Generally is faster than a bus
Can clear large crowds quickly

Trains/Railways - Negatives
Is fixed, cannot serve a large spread out geographic area effectively (even if you had feeder buses)
Is dependant on a continuous energised overhead wire system, faults in the system can cause trains to stop
Train breakdowns or other blockages on the line can cause a negative flow on effect on the network, as trains cannot 'overtake' the blockage, there are not crossovers everywhere

I have tried light rail and trams several times in Melbourne and while they seem to be an attractive feature of Melbourne, they can be cumbersome, I found them slow and only efficient to serve a small geographic area, within 5kms of the city.  They can fall to the same negative levels of trains.  They don't neccessairly carry more people than buses, and are fixed, they are best to carrying people within a short distance than a large distance and where there is a high turnover of passengers, which is why they may work on the Gold Coast where it is a short distance and will be limited within 5-10kms of the coast and there is always a high level of turnover of passengers.

[Emmie]

Great summary STB!

From the perspective of the passenger, I would add some advantages to rail:

- I can read/write/work in the train; I can't read in the bus
- I can read/write/work while waiting for the train, as I know when it will come (more or less!); I can't read while waiting at a bus stop/busway stop, as I'm constantly watching out for my number to arrive (and the digital info at the busway stops is constantly changing)

And, as you say:

Large number of routes can be daunting for passengers not used to catching public transport

- a map of train routes is easy to understand for newbies; bus routes are much more confusing - and once on the bus, it is harder to identify your stop - I'd like to see the system in some European cities, where buses digitally display the next stop, as many trains do

[Jon Bryant]

There is also good empirical evidence of why rail is the better option.  A study of public transport performance in the U.S. http://www.vtpi.org/bus_rail.pdf compared urban areas that expanded rail transit with urban areas that expanded bus transit from the mid-1990s through 2003. The analysis indicated that cities that expanded their rail systems significantly outperformed cities that only expanded bus systems in terms of transit ridership, passenger-mileage, and operating cost efficiency.

The flexibility unfortunately puts many off as the lack of certainty is too great of an unknown.  New mobile/GPS visibility of routes, timings, next stops, etc will definitely help but rail (heavy and light) is the best choice.

[Markus]

I find the difference to be intangible, yet, for me, the difference is there.
Im rarely prepared to get on a bus, yet am quite comfy on a train.

On a train, I know exactly where Im getting off, as it has a specific station name.
The emissions aren't dispersed in the environment where I live. Read-urban areas.
I also, can rest/ sleep on a train, yet not on a bus.
Trains also have give me the perception that Im not going to be interrupted by god knows what.
Now I know thats not necessarily the case, but I dont care. My mind simply perceives it that way, so I drive my car or travel by train.

There's my vote.