Cyclone Hamish

[ozbob]

Cyclone Hamish has the potential to wreck a lot of flood damage and if it turns across the coast wind damage.

BOM information Queensland weather and warnings --> http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/

Tropical Cyclone Threat Map --> http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Having experienced the effects of the 1974 floods in Brisbane, this cyclone needs to be taken very seriously.

If Hervey Bay needs to be evacuated I would expect all transport modes to play their part. 

Joint Statement:

Premier
The Honourable Anna Bligh

Minister for Emergency Services
The Honourable Neil Roberts
07/03/2009

Powers invoked to evacuate residents from cyclone's path

Premier Anna Bligh has today invoked powers to evacuate residents of areas in the path of severe Cyclone Hamish in a bid to ensure all Queenslanders remain safe.

Ms Bligh and Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts invoked the powers under the Queensland Disaster Management Act which allows disaster management groups to evacuate residents they believe are in danger.

"Even though we have today invoked these powers, we hope not to be in a position where they have to be enforced," Ms Bligh said.

"But it is vital that we have the powers in place in the interest of the safety of all coastal residents who may be in danger.

"It is imperative that we keep the safety of all residents paramount and ensure that everyone is out of the path of this extremely serious cyclone."

Mr Roberts said the unpredictability of the cyclone - coupled with the possibility of a storm surge of 1.5 to two metres should the cyclone turn toward the coast - meant every precaution needed to be taken to keep residents safe.

Residents in communities from Lucinda to Hervey Bay have been placed on alert.

"All people in these areas - in every community between Lucinda and Hervey Bay - need to be on alert and should be prepared to move at extremely short notice in the event that Hamish changes direction," Mr Roberts said.

"It is the unpredictability of events such as this that is so concerning.

"The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting damaging winds exceeding 200 kilometres per hour close to the centre of the cyclone making this an extremely dangerous event.

"We want to ensure all people in the region are safe as possible."

Ms Bligh and Mr Roberts were briefed this morning by emergency services chiefs and weather bureau forecasters who are forecasting exceptional high tides coupled with the risk of a storm surge, high seas and strong winds.

The cyclone is located in the north western Coral Sea about 230 kilometres east of Cairns and is moving south-southeast at seventeen kilometres per hour tracking parallel to the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish is currently a category 3 cyclone, and with a deepening low pressure cell, has the potential to form into a category 4.

"We are asking all people to prepare to move as quickly as possible from these areas and to stay constantly tuned to reports of the cyclone's progress," Ms Bligh said.

"It's also important to prepare an emergency kit.

"We do not want to cause unnecessary alarm to people in these areas, but we need all Queenslanders between Lucinda and Hervey Bay to be prepared for the worst case scenario."

7 March 2009

From the Courier Mail click here!

Cyclone Hamish menaces central Queensland coast

Cyclone Hamish menaces central Queensland coast
Article from: The Courier-Mail

James O'Loan and Rodney Chester

March 08, 2009 07:40pm

HERVEY Bay residents will be urged to leave town as Cyclone Hamish bears down, following a similar path to the cyclone that flooded Brisbane in 1974.

About 10,000 residents from a low-lying "danger zone" between Burrum Heads and River Heads will be told on Monday to get out and bunker down with friends and family before local roads are cut.

But they're not the only Queenslanders being urged to take precautions against Hamish.

The category-four cyclone is following a similar path to Cyclone Wanda, which weaved down the coast and speared inland before dumping the rain which caused the devastating 1974 floods in Brisbane.

On Sunday night, the weather bureau estimated Hamish was on track to cross the mainland on Monday night near Hervey Bay, about 300km north of Brisbane.

The storm had winds of 240km/h near its centre, but it was still away from the coast, with its centre 214km northeast of St Lawrence in central Queensland.

A cyclone warning was in place between St Lawrence and Bundaberg, with a cyclone watch in place from Bundaberg to Tewantin.

Major centres such as Townsville and Mackay were taken off the cyclone watch at the weekend as Hamish moved steadily southeast, stalking the coastline without threatening to turn towards land.

Coastal towns north of Rockhampton received heavy rain and strong winds without any reports of major damage.

But forecasters fear that Hamish will turn towards Hervey Bay, where it will cross the coast as a category-three storm.

And local authorities say they do not want residents in low-lying areas to remain in their homes.

Authorities on Monday morning will start doorknocking some of the 10,000 residents and ask them to seek higher ground, with fears a tidal surge could force water levels up to 3m above high tide on Tuesday morning.

A lack of resources means a fully assisted evacuation is out of the question, according to Superintendent Steve Wardrope who heads one of two disaster co-ordination centres set up overnight.

Fears are such that if many do not flee on Monday, a rush on Tuesday could turn to all-out panic if forecast rain cuts escape routes and leaves families stranded.

The only way out is via either Hervey Bay Rd or Torbanlea Pialba, both of which flood if they receive 100mm to 200mm.

"(Weather forecasters) are predicting 200mm to 300mm in three hours on Tuesday," Fraser Coast Regional Council Mayor Mick Kruger said.

"We urge residents to be well out of the impact area and off the roads by midnight (on Monday).

"We're moving now because cyclones are unpredictable. We're telling people to self-evacuate as soon as possible and if they've got friends or family in Hervey Bay or Fraser Coast in higher areas, to stay with them.

"If they're going to batten down, that's their choice."

Traffic appeared normal on Sunday night on the main arterial, Hervey Bay Rd, but began building once it connected with the Bruce Highway as Fraser Island evacuated.

Of Hervey Bay's 60,000 residents, 23 per cent are 65 or older. Emergency services personnel are aware that the statistic could create different challenges.

Those along the foreshore at Urangun, Scarness and Torquay are the most vulnerable to a storm surge, according to the Maryborough Disaster District Co-ordination Centre.

The two disaster district co-ordination centres will operate around the clock to monitor and supply SES and emergency service responses.

At-risk residents have been urged to monitor local media reports from Monday morning.

Cr Kruger said maps showing the danger zone were being printed overnight and would be available on the council's website from Monday.

Hard copies would also be available from Hervey Bay's council building in Tavistock St, Torquay.

About 800 campers on Fraser Island were evacuated on Sunday, while many of those in Eurong Resort, on the island's east coast, have also left.

However barges and ferries to Kingfisher Bay Resort were expected to continue on Monday.

Precautions are also being taken to alert thousands of Maryborough residents living near the Mary River, which could flood significantly for the first time since the 1990s.

The stretch from Owanyilla to the Granville Bridge is the most susceptible to flooding.

[ozbob]

Latest reports suggest cyclone Hamish may not cross the coast and track out to sea.

Tropical Cyclone Threat Map --> http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml  confirms.

Still could turn, but less likely now ...

[ozbob]

A Sunlander consist was dispatched last evening to be in the general area if needed.

The Premier mentioned this tonight on the 7 News.  If the cyclone was imminent it would be reasonable to expect further trains eg. ICE and IMU would be used to assist in the evacuation as needed.

[O_128]

interesting oz bob do you mean sending IMUs to marybourogh.

[ozbob]

Yes.  I think it would be a good way to move the folks en-mass, and all are toilet equipped.


http://www.downeredi.com/

[ozbob]

Update on threat map --> http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

[ButFli]

One wonders about the practicality of rail as a means of evacuating Hervey Bay. How far is it between Hervey Bay and Maryborough? Too far to walk, anyway.

That raises the point of how long will Hervey Bay have to wait for a connection to the railway. As a growing seasise resort (of sorts) it must only be a matter of time before some infrastructure is put in place. Perhaps some time in the next 50 to 75 years we will all be riding an ICE to the beach at Hervey Bay.

[Derwan]

I was in Maryborough the few days that Hamish was "threatening".  Being a local, I wasn't too worried.  Cyclones regularly headed south but only once or twice (in my lifetime) came anywhere near Hervey Bay/Maryborough.

I noticed the Sunlander train at Maryborough West station on Monday morning.  I thought it'd been held up because of the Cyclone until I heard about the train being dispatched in case an evacuation was needed.  I don't know what they were planning to do with it.  Only those in the vulnerable areas of Hervey Bay would need to be moved - and then they really only needed to be moved to a higher area or to Maryborough - not necessarily out of the area.

Hervey Bay to Maryborough West is about 40 minutes.  I guess you could use all available buses to first shuttle passengers to Maryborough West, then head back to Hervey Bay to evacuate more people using the buses themselves.  The problem is that if they start too late, the road between Maryborough and Hervey Bay could potentially be flooded.

[Derwan]

That raises the point of how long will Hervey Bay have to wait for a connection to the railway. As a growing seasise resort (of sorts) it must only be a matter of time before some infrastructure is put in place. Perhaps some time in the next 50 to 75 years we will all be riding an ICE to the beach at Hervey Bay.

Just on this one, Hervey Bay is another location where the train line was ripped up.  (I remember riding the train between Pialba, Urangan and Maryborough as a child.)  The corridor has been developed, so a new corridor would need to be found.

[ButFli]

I thought it'd been held up because of the Cyclone until I heard about the train being dispatched in case an evacuation was needed.  I don't know what they were planning to do with it.  Only those in the vulnerable areas of Hervey Bay would need to be moved - and then they really only needed to be moved to a higher area or to Maryborough - not necessarily out of the area.

Hervey Bay to Maryborough West is about 40 minutes.  I guess you could use all available buses to first shuttle passengers to Maryborough West, then head back to Hervey Bay to evacuate more people using the buses themselves.  The problem is that if they start too late, the road between Maryborough and Hervey Bay could potentially be flooded.

I too had these thoughts. I think the with just shuttling people to Maryborough is that there might not be anywhere to put them. You're a local, you tell us.

Also, one of the things that made the response to Hurricane Katrina appear so lacklustre is that the evacuation points were still in the hurricane's path. Maybe Maryborough would have been ok. Maybe it wouldn't. Who knows.

[ozbob]

The broad details of the plan was that if necessary,  up to 10,000 pax to be moved by rail from Maryborough West to RNA showgrounds Brisbane. Bus shuttle to Maryborough West. Short term accommodation at RNA Brisbane, time to manage further options.  This evacuation would have been done if the cyclone was going to impact and in advance under the powers for the Emergency Disaster  legislation.

About 20 ICE/IMU would have been used, in addition to the Sunlander consist moved up early.  Train crew who knew the road would have been made available to pilot for the Citytrain crews.

There would have some reduction in normal Citytrain services for the period the IMUs were up north.  But I am sure people would have coped and understood.  (Probably only one peak affected).

It was a strong vote of support for rail.  Demonstrates what can be achieved.