Projects most likely to be implemented?

[Rail Rookie]

Do we have a Top 3 Discussion/Post on the projects most likely going to happen that haven't been announced (so not including GC LR Stage 3)? Happy for the timeline to be the next decade, cause that seems to be what TMR/QR/Government work on! Maybe Top 3 for projects under 5mil, 50mil and 500mil. I'd be surprised if there was another project in the next decade in the billions (not including the Rolling Stock) 

If most likely means has <20% chance, I don't mind. It is what it is 

[Rail Rookie]

If I had to play for sheep stations I would say the following:
[<1Billion]

• GC LR Stage 4, GC LR seems to be the few things federal and state agree on!
• Extension to Ripley/Ipswich Line
[<500mil]

• The Beams Road (Carseldine and Fitzgibbon), rail level crossing removal
• Trinder Park Line straightening
• Park N Ride expansion at a station
[<50mil]

• Renaming a station, probs trinder park station (changed to "Trendy"  )

[timh]

Big Boi projects:
- GCLR Stage 4
- Salisbury to Flagstone/Beaudesert line
- CAMCOS, at the very least to Caloundra
- Gold Coast Heavy Rail Extension

Medium projects:
- Cleveland Line Duplication
- South East Busway Extension to IKEA
- Further stages of the Eastern transitway

Smol projects
- Various platform raising projects
- Central station upgrade
- Brisbane Metro rebranding works on the busway, maybe with off-board ticketing eventually

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[SteelPan]

Take any major RAIL possibility for SEQ....then....switch to.....

a ONE service in the morning BUS and a ONE service in the evening BUS - on Week Days ONLY!

That's the Project that will most likely be implemented!   

[Stillwater]

Unfortunately politics plays a big part in transport infrastructure decisions – especially in Queensland where the relevant department (TMR) is under direct ministerial control. That is why there are strident calls for a Public Transport Authority for Queensland that would have superior public transport expertise within its ranks, not dominated by road-centric thinking.

Occasionally the politics can work for the greater good and one of those opportunities will occur before May, when the federal election must be held. An example of this is a pledge by Labor to help fund fast rail to Newcastle/Hunter because they want to shore up their vote there.

The political pundits say that the federal election will be won or lost in Queensland, where the Coalition holds 23 of the 30 federal seats. Several are up for grabs, and this is crucial.
A redistribution has taken the seat of Sterling from WA and created the new Victorian seat of Hawke, which is notionally Labor. Taking the 2019 election result as the basis of analysis, this means the Coalition representation in the 151-member House of Reps drops from 77 to 76 seats and Labor (probably) goes up by one to 69 seats. Seventy-six seats are needed for majority government, so Scott Morrison is on a knife-edge.

If we look at the Coalition marginal seats in Queensland, the Coalition is on shaky ground in Longman (3.3% margin) and Dickson (4.6%). That's the areas around Petrie and Caboolture. For Labor, their Achilles heel is Lilley (0.6%), around the airport and Sandgate way, and Blair, which sits north-south through Ipswich and taking in Redbank Plains and Ripley.

To swing a few votes in Blair, we could expect one or both of the major political parties committing serious federal dollars to extending the Springfield Line to Redbank Plains. Along the corridor to Caboolture, could we see the political debate include federal money for the Trouts Road Corridor rail line? Local lobby groups will be working hard for both projects, no doubt.

The politics looks like playing out for CAMCOS to Caloundra.

[nathandavid88]

Big Boi projects:
- GCLR Stage 4
- Salisbury to Flagstone/Beaudesert line
- CAMCOS, at the very least to Caloundra
- Gold Coast Heavy Rail Extension - including Kuraby-Beenleigh quading

Medium projects:
- Cleveland Line Duplication
- South East Busway Extension to IKEA Loganholme Station
- Further stages of the Eastern transitway

Smol projects
- Various platform raising projects
- Central station upgrade
- Brisbane Metro rebranding works on the busway, maybe with off-board ticketing eventually I would actually consider this as a medium-large project, as most stations require Metro conversion works
(EV infrastructure, platform extensions, etc) which, for some stations like Buranda, will require substantial alterations. Not sold on getting offboard ticketing though.

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I basically agree with this, but with a few amendments in red. I think at least a start being made on the extension to Ripley is possible.

As a random wildcard, I still have a gut feeling that there will be some sort of Olympics-related project involving the Doomben Line. Some "low hanging fruit" job that they can pass off as "major olympic infrastructure". It could be something as simple as line duplication, and maybe some kind of station/park n ride/interchange to service the Olympic Village. I don't think they'd go over KSD, but maybe use the Skills Tech (Eagle Farm TAFE) site for an interchange and then run shuttle buses down Theodore Street? Just a feeling I have.

[timh]

The politics looks like playing out for CAMCOS to Caloundra.

Hence why I added it to my list. With Ted O'Brien (MP for the area) now being the head honcho of the Olympics setup committee, he seems to have a LOT of political sway. It's like they'll give him whatever he asks for now, because they've given him a lot of power (ie. leverage).

- Gold Coast Heavy Rail Extension - including Kuraby-Beenleigh quading
- South East Busway Extension to IKEA Loganholme Station

Yeah the quad is definitely bound to happen and I expect would be included in the package of works for any future extensions. 9-car train platform extensions would probably also be bundled in this project.... so come to think of it this is more likely a big boi project....
As for busway, OP said in the next 10 years, so I don't expect we'll get to the Hyperdome by 2032 (as much as I'd like to). That'd be a bit further away I reckon.

- Brisbane Metro rebranding works on the busway, maybe with off-board ticketing eventually I would actually consider this as a medium-large project, as most stations require Metro conversion works
(EV infrastructure, platform extensions, etc) which, for some stations like Buranda, will require substantial alterations. Not sold on getting offboard ticketing though.

I don't think we'll get those "Stage 2" Brisbane Metro works for quite a while, I doubt in the next 10 years, considering the delays to Stage 1...

I think at least a start being made on the extension to Ripley is possible.

I would hope they can get to Ripley in a "Stage 1", but I expect tit may be curtailed to School Road in the interim, as Olympic infrastructure will be prioritised in the next 10 years.

As a random wildcard, I still have a gut feeling that there will be some sort of Olympics-related project involving the Doomben Line. Some "low hanging fruit" job that they can pass off as "major olympic infrastructure". It could be something as simple as line duplication, and maybe some kind of station/park n ride/interchange to service the Olympic Village. I don't think they'd go over KSD, but maybe use the Skills Tech (Eagle Farm TAFE) site for an interchange and then run shuttle buses down Theodore Street? Just a feeling I have.

An elevated rail link to Hamilton Olympic village, plus some other Doomben line works (duplication, LX removal, maybe upgrades at Eagle Junction if they can afford it), would be the perfect infrastructure to link the Olympic village in my opinion, but I think our hopes are just about dashed with this one. There seems to be ZERO interest in doing anything on the Doomben line from the Govt., and the Hamilton PDA was recently updated (end of 2021) to completely remove the gazetted rail corridor, so I think it's off the cards
See: https://www.statedevelopment.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0023/63707/northshore-hamilton-pda-proposed-development-scheme-amendment-1.pdf

[#Metro]

Bus Reform.

I'm grateful for all door boarding.

[nathandavid88]

- Gold Coast Heavy Rail Extension - including Kuraby-Beenleigh quading
- South East Busway Extension to IKEA Loganholme Station

Yeah the quad is definitely bound to happen and I expect would be included in the package of works for any future extensions. 9-car train platform extensions would probably also be bundled in this project.... so come to think of it this is more likely a big boi project....
As for busway, OP said in the next 10 years, so I don't expect we'll get to the Hyperdome by 2032 (as much as I'd like to). That'd be a bit further away I reckon.
[/quote]

Ok, maybe not fully complete by 2032, but not far off. I reckon they will want to have the entire M1 Stage 3 Daisy Hill to Logan Motorway Upgrade finished prior to the Olympics, and that project includes the Busway Extension to Loganholme. Even if they only get Stage 3A done by 2032, that is still Busway to the Slacks Creek Park N Ride at Loganlea Road, so further than IKEA.

As for 9 car stations, they will likely be made with future 9 car capability planned, but probably not implemented. Actually, on that topic, do the Southside station upgrades (Fairfield, etc) include 9 car train compatability?

[timh]

As for 9 car stations, they will likely be made with future 9 car capability planned, but probably not implemented. Actually, on that topic, do the Southside station upgrades (Fairfield, etc) include 9 car train compatability?

Negative, they do not. Although the 9-car thing is for GC services only, not Beenleigh services. And GC trains don't stop at Fairfield, Yeronga etc. Loganlea is being provisioned for 9 car though.

I imagine that when they decide to do the 9 car thing, whatever southside station north of Loganlea that becomes the transfer station post CRR/Flagstone line (altandi, Salisbury, etc) will get the 9 car treatment

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[Rail Rookie]

As for 9 car stations, they will likely be made with future 9 car capability planned, but probably not implemented. Actually, on that topic, do the Southside station upgrades (Fairfield, etc) include 9 car train compatability?

Negative, they do not. Although the 9-car thing is for GC services only, not Beenleigh services. And GC trains don't stop at Fairfield, Yeronga etc. Loganlea is being provisioned for 9 car though.

I imagine that when they decide to do the 9 car thing, whatever southside station north of Loganlea that becomes the transfer station post CRR/Flagstone line (altandi, Salisbury, etc) will get the 9 car treatment

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Would it have cost much extra for them to do it during the upgrades? or is it not needed for 15 years so they thought we'll spend money elsewhere, just seems odd to have the man power already there, and needing to close stations down for long periods anyway.

[HappyTrainGuy]

Petrie-Beerburrum/Camcos, CRR core, Altandi, Loganlea, Beenleigh (middle road turn back provisions removed)-Varsity Lakes are the only stations that will have 9 car compatibility. MBRL has been designed in such a way that it can be upgraded to 9 car trains should it be needed ie peak hour provisioning. In saying that it was based pre covid along with an additional platform that's been removed as part of Newman's cost cuts so expect any MBRL works to be well down the pipe line. With Salisbury rumor has it will be relocated north towards the level crossing outside the school on a quad with 9 car lengths but will only be delivered as part of the Beaudesert spur. Rumor also has it being built for 9 car expansion so services can feed into that corridor after crr running and vice versa with them extending onto Sunny coast line services without the need for a slow crossover into the Clapham yard or slowing entry into Mayne/clearing trains at Exhibition.

As I said that's all well down the pipeline. There are no 9 car trains. No point doing it now if we won't get them for another 10-15 years.