SEQ public transport patronage 2018_19 updates

[ozbob]

Still waiting on detailed patronage from TransLink, some preliminary data.



2016/2017         177.40 
2017/2018         182.52  + 2.9%
2018/2019         187.02  + 2.5%




Average weekly trips 3,271,271

[ozbob]

[Fares_Fair]

Look forward to the line by line breakdown.
Claims made after TMR interview by Matt Longland Deputy D-G of TMR with Steve Austin on ABC radio 612, was that Sunshine Coast aren't voting with their feet, implying that the demand isn't there to improve our abysmal levels of service.
I reckon in spite of our pathetic service levels that patronage is still growing.
It may well have been made with the same knowledge as the ridiculously erroneous claim that Sunshine Coasters are enjoying the new NGR trains, when none have been used on our line for patronage.

[#Metro]

What about when you divide by population for each year? What is the per capita rate doing?

[ozbob]

What about when you divide by population for each year? What is the per capita rate doing?

Fuking terrible ...   

2010/11  it was 59.26  trips/capita

2017/18  it was 52.45  trips/capita

This is more evidence for the need for a new approach to PT organisation and management in Queensland.

The present bureaucratic mob has presided over failure for a long time.  They are defensive and seem to be against growing patronage.

[ozbob]

Look forward to the line by line breakdown.
Claims made after TMR interview by Matt Longland Deputy D-G of TMR with Steve Austin on ABC radio 612, was that Sunshine Coast aren't voting with their feet, implying that the demand isn't there to improve our abysmal levels of service.
I reckon in spite of our pathetic service levels that patronage is still growing.
It may well have been made with the same knowledge as the ridiculously erroneous claim that Sunshine Coasters are enjoying the new NGR trains, when none have been used on our line for patronage.

I have been told by internal sources FF that rail is +4.1% for 2018/19 (still needs to be confirmed with the data), this means that some of the other modes (bus and ferry) haven't done too well, remember that the light rail is propping up patronage to a degree as well.

[techblitz]

4.5 million gain is still woeful when weighed up against new population growth......if you were to factor in the extra 40000+ new net arrivals into translink fare zones....assuming they commuted 230 days per year two trips per day.......4.5 millions trips would mean a net zero gain for current residents and only 1 in 4 of the new arrivals taking up public transport....

40000 * 240days * 2 = 19.2m / 4

[#Metro]

I have been told by internal sources FF that rail is +4.1% for 2018/19 (still needs to be confirmed with the data), this means that some of the other modes (bus and ferry) haven't done too well, remember that the light rail is propping up patronage to a degree as well.

But if Perth is carrying more...?

QLD has lots of satellite cities connected to rail - Springfield, Ipswich, Caboolture, Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Beenleigh... it should be performing much better than Perth which just has Mandurah.

[ozbob]

What about when you divide by population for each year? What is the per capita rate doing?

Fuking terrible ...   

2010/11  it was 59.26  trips/capita

2017/18  it was 52.45  trips/capita

This is more evidence for the need for a new approach to PT organisation and management in Queensland.

The present bureaucratic mob has presided over failure for a long time.  They are defensive and seem to be against growing patronage.

This gives a little more perspective how SEQ sits, SEQ -11.5 % ... 



From 

https://twitter.com/yfreemark/status/1171069742465060864

[AnonymouslyBad]

^ That's an interesting graph, because it shows SEQ isn't actually an outlier. The US experience is similar, despite an increased focus on public transport since the mid-2000s. SEQ public transport might be crap but there's clearly more going on than that.

The impact of "ride-sharing" (ugh) can't be understated. I'd go so far as to say Uber had a particularly high impact in Brisbane. A compact CBD, far too many motorways, and a general early-adopter attitude (sorry Syd/Melb it's true) all led to ludicrously fast take up, at public transport's expense.

It would be interesting to see how the Brisbane (proper) numbers fare, sadly it's never broken down that way. "SEQ" is not really comparable to anything on this graph. Even sprawling US cities usually have tightly defined boundaries, with much of outer suburbia being nominally a separate town.

In Brisbane there's a clear trend of increasing patronage on high quality bus services, and loss of passengers for the milk runs. The near-total stagnation of BUZ(-equivalent) services since ~2010 therefore has to take much of the blame for falling ridership. When we consider the rail growth, bus numbers must be doing terribly indeed, and we know those losses aren't the 66 or the 111

tl;dr: You know what would drive ridership? BUS REFORM

[ozbob]

You will find this interesting AB.  Auckland continues to climb since this graph was published.  One of the key reasons is ' bus reform ' ..

We got really messed up with the failure of the 2013 bus network reform, still suffering.  Bus and heavy rail has flat lined essentially the last 10 years.  Heavy rail is an an under performer in terms of pax.  Plenty of latent capacity on the rail network ... we must start tapping into that.

As you move away from Brisbane there is not much PT cf. to Brisbane, hence the lower figures (trips/capita) for SEQ cf. Brisbane.   Our bus networks need urgent reform, and the rail is not performing well, largely due to poor frequencies and a lack of proper feeder bus support. A focus on park 'n' ride is pax limiting.  It is a finite, limited, expensive, patronage booster.

But there is not a govt, local or state here in banana land, that has the ' balls ' for proper reform. 

They are apparently quite happy to allow mediocrity to fester ..

Jurisdictions that make PT a priority (they don't in the States, with the exception of NY) are doing well. Paris is in a class of its own.

We can turn it around. 



https://twitter.com/DarrenDavis10/status/1142164152078594048

[James]

The article linked above really nails down what the USA's cities (and SEQ) are missing in two pieces:

There are, however, certain changes in France that have made transit more effective. Most medium and large French cities have invested in tramway services; length of those lines increased from about 115 miles nationwide in 2000 to 515 miles today. Many cities, such as Metz, have developed effective bus rapid transit services.

What has dried up in SEQ? Busway investment. We've had the SE Busway (2000), UQ - Buranda Busway (2006-2008), Eastern Busway (2010) and Northern Busway (2012). In the seven years since? Nothing. Where an investment has been made in tram services (on the Gold Coast), we've seen subsequent increases in patronage.

At the same time, perhaps most importantly, U.S. transit providers simply haven't increased service to account for a growing population. Between 2010 and 2018, vehicle-miles provided by New York region transit services actually declined by 1.6 percent even as population increased by 4.6 percent.

In the Paris region, transit service provided increased by 6.9 percent over the same period, as population increased by 3.8 percent.

Once you account for the minor cuts associated with BCC's bus network reform, I imagine that overall vehicle-km provided by TransLink has decreased slightly, despite population increasing.

Perhaps some TransLink officials should have joined the Olympic delegation and travelled around France for a week to see how to do public transport effectively!

[SurfRail]

Tram now carrying over 47% of all Gold Coast combined bus/tram patronage (if you ignore school and special events).

Give it another year of no major investment in the bus system and trams might even overtake it.

[Gazza]

I have been told by internal sources FF that rail is +4.1% for 2018/19 (still needs to be confirmed with the data), this means that some of the other modes (bus and ferry) haven't done too well, remember that the light rail is propping up patronage to a degree as well.

But if Perth is carrying more...?

QLD has lots of satellite cities connected to rail - Springfield, Ipswich, Caboolture, Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Beenleigh... it should be performing much better than Perth which just has Mandurah.

And Joondalup and Midland.