The Gap-Suggested Network Changes

[Cazza]

This is just a change I have been pondering on for a while now:

In the new Hi Frequency Network, there is no direct connection between The Gap Village and Ashgrove (currently serviced by Route 380 and P384 in peak hours). It is used by many commuters and school kids each day. This number is sure to grow as Ashgrove (in the new network) will become a KIP (Key Interchange Point) and will draw commuters from The Gap and Keperra. I myself is a daily commuter through this area and I can see many benefits this will have.

Extending Route 77 from Ashgrove Village to Settlement Rd will connect these two locations for commuters and many school students but also provide UQ students with a direct service to The Gap (if they are willing to travel the long way).

This then allows Route 362 to start at The Gap Village and run through the local streets of The Gap for shoppers before heading up Settlement Rd towards Brookside. By starting Route 362 at The Gap Village will also allow school students from The Gap High to catch this bus directly (rather than having to walk down to Payne Rd). The 3:38pm northbound Route 362 averages around 40-50 students as it heads over Settlement Rd and this number will grow as it will now service the Payne Rd area (in the southern area of The Gap).

Extending Route 77 will not require any extra resources as it will replace this section of Route 362. The Gap Village could become a minor interchange between these services as well as Hi 385.

Hi Frequency Network Map Link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1wpo1rDYVfD9xbEQcLnZiy4RvroQ&ll=-27.434489139326896%2C153.00722300000007&z=10

The Gap Bus Changes Map Link: https://www.google.com.au/maps/d/edit?mid=1pKLGI0vRxY1c3-9qIbZl1jNgkPI&ll=-27.44703461926499%2C152.9541842836304&z=14

I'd like to hear people's thoughts and ideas on this and if they have any other suggestions. Cheers.

[STB]

Hate to nitpicik, but I think this is my former career as a Planner at TL cropping up,but can you if possible, change the wording from 'proposed' to 'suggested' and make it clearer it's for discussion only.  I clicked on this link when I saw the wording 'proposed' and thought this was formal Government consultation.

I haven't taken a detailed look at it yet, but my personal opinion for the general area (without knowing the travel patterns or ticketing data, among other things like consulting with local council, bus company etc - critical work before any lines on a map is drawn up from my past experience) is that I think The Gap can do with two high frequency routes, one via the current 385 route and one via Waterworks Rd.

[Cazza]

Hate to nitpicik, but I think this is my former career as a Planner at TL cropping up,but can you if possible, change the wording from 'proposed' to 'suggested' and make it clearer it's for discussion only.  I clicked on this link when I saw the wording 'proposed' and thought this was formal Government consultation.

Fixed

I haven't taken a detailed look at it yet, but my personal opinion for the general area (without knowing the travel patterns or ticketing data, among other things like consulting with local council, bus company etc - critical work before any lines on a map is drawn up from my past experience) is that I think The Gap can do with two high frequency routes, one via the current 385 route and one via Waterworks Rd.

Re. travel patterns. I don't have any actual data to confirm where every single passenger is travelling to and from The Gap but since I travel around this area most days I can have a pretty safe guess (either by seeing patronage on buses and where they are heading or just looking at the private car usage and seeing where the most traffic is).

[#Metro]

Hello,

Some comments. The main change seems to be the extension of Route 77 into The Gap. I assume that this is to avoid a transfer.

Some rough calculations. I have made up the in-vehicle travel times, but between the two scenarios there should be no difference

by their addition as both scenarios have the same amount of in vehicle time added and are treated equally.


Transfer between two BUZ services

Average Case

Wait for bus 1: 7.5 minutes
Travel 10 minutes: 10 minutes
Wait for bus 2: 7.5 minutes
Travel 10 minutes: 10 minutes

Total: 35 minutes

Worst Case

Wait for bus 1: 15 minutes
Travel 10 minutes: 10 minutes
Wait for bus 2: 15 minutes
Travel 10 minutes: 10 minutes

Total: 50 minutes

Direct Bus 77 case:

Average case
Wait for bus: 15 minutes
Travel 20 minutes: 20 minutes

Total: 35 minutes

Worst Case:

Wait for bus: 30 minutes
Travel 20 minutes: 20 minutes

Total: 50 minutes


Conclusion: A direct bus is no faster than the transfer case scenario, but comes with additional operating costs.

[Cazza]

Direct Bus 77 case:

Average case
Wait for bus: 15 minutes
Travel 20 minutes: 20 minutes

Total: 35 minutes

Firstly, it takes less than 10 mins (if that) to travel from Ashgrove and The Gap. On an Sunday afternoon (now) it takes 6 (7 mins by bus): https://www.google.com.au/maps/dir/-27.4455464,152.992796/-27.4450115,152.9525356/@-27.4485845,152.9551318,6801m/am=t/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m2!4m1!3e0
Even in the middle of afternoon peak it takes only 16 minutes via Route 380 (all stops): https://www.google.com.au/maps/dir/-27.4454966,152.9935855/-27.4448994,152.9523604/@-27.4468981,152.9558883,6801m/am=t/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!4m5!2m2!7e2!8j1503940800!3e3!5i1

In addition, you can take out another 10 mins from the wait time because most people (even sometimes for BUZ services) will still check a timetable before they leave so they know that they won't end up having to run for a bus or just miss it by a couple of mins. This would almost be certain for a bus running every 30 mins or so (yes, I realise you have averaged the time between services to make it simpler).

But, it isn't just the time it takes that people will take into account but the inefficiency. I can almost guarantee that if there was no direct connection between Ashgrove and The Gap SHS, then at least 50% less students would be on the bus. Why? Because at least 20 kids already get either the 350,352 or GCL down Wardell St from Enoggera and Ashgrove. That would mean they would have to catch 3 buses for a distance of just 6kms which can be covered in around 10 mins: https://www.google.com.au/maps/dir/-27.4292619,152.9894702/-27.4450115,152.9525356/@-27.4391647,152.9629581,3401m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m2!4m1!3e0

I understand that this is a tiny portion of the network and on a whole, it is very difficult to cater for everybody. But, I just feel that it would be a greater benefit for everyone to keep this connection and would be at no extra cost (as I stated earlier, it would just replace the section of Route 362 which was proposed to run to Ashgrove anyway).

[tazzer9]

I used to get the 598 and then 380 home from school.  My brother and sister currently do it now, along with heaps of other students.  Not just from their school and around 4 others.   It is popular, but could be improved by getting rid of the underutilised school only services in the area. 

[#Metro]

Hi, thanks for the comments.   

Firstly, it takes less than 10 mins (if that) to travel from Ashgrove and The Gap. On an Sunday afternoon (now) it takes 6 (7 mins by bus):

It doesn't change the outcome of the analysis. If we use 6 minutes, the conclusion is unchanged.

Transfer between two BUZ services

Average Case

Wait for bus 1: 7.5 minutes
Travel 3 minutes: 3 minutes
Wait for bus 2: 7.5 minutes
Travel 3 minutes: 3 minutes

Total: 21 minutes

Worst Case

Wait for bus 1: 15 minutes
Travel 3 minutes: 3 minutes
Wait for bus 2: 15 minutes
Travel 3 minutes: 3 minutes

Total: 36 minutes

Direct Bus 77 case:

Average case
Wait for bus: 15 minutes
Travel 6 minutes: 6 minutes

Total: 21 minutes

Worst Case:

Wait for bus: 30 minutes
Travel 6 minutes: 6 minutes

Total: 36 minutes

Conclusion: Still no advantage, even with different/corrected bus travel times.

In addition, you can take out another 10 mins from the wait time because most people (even sometimes for BUZ services) will still check a timetable before they leave so they know that they won't end up having to run for a bus or just miss it by a couple of mins. This would almost be certain for a bus running every 30 mins or so (yes, I realise you have averaged the time between services to make it simpler).

The BUZ services are running at least every 15 minutes all day. The route 77 (being a black line) is running every 30 minutes. So even if we accept the "extra time for timetable check", that would disfavour the extension of the route 77 option into The Gap.

Or did I misinterpret something?

But, it isn't just the time it takes that people will take into account but the inefficiency. I can almost guarantee that if there was no direct connection between Ashgrove and The Gap SHS, then at least 50% less students would be on the bus. Why? Because at least 20 kids already get either the 350,352 or GCL down Wardell St from Enoggera and Ashgrove. That would mean they would have to catch 3 buses for a distance of just 6kms which can be covered in around 10 mins: https://www.google.com.au/maps/dir/-27.4292619,152.9894702/-27.4450115,152.9525356/@-27.4391647,152.9629581,3401m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m2!4m1!3e0

True, but that could be covered by a school bus service or a selected service extension just before and just after school times.
Does it need to be there all day and on weekends?

[Cazza]

Hi, thanks for the comments.   

Firstly, it takes less than 10 mins (if that) to travel from Ashgrove and The Gap. On an Sunday afternoon (now) it takes 6 (7 mins by bus):

In addition, you can take out another 10 mins from the wait time because most people (even sometimes for BUZ services) will still check a timetable before they leave so they know that they won't end up having to run for a bus or just miss it by a couple of mins. This would almost be certain for a bus running every 30 mins or so (yes, I realise you have averaged the time between services to make it simpler).

The BUZ services are running at least every 15 minutes all day. The route 77 (being a black line) is running every 30 minutes. So even if we accept the "extra time for timetable check", that would disfavour the extension of the route 77 option into The Gap.

Or did I misinterpret something?

I was more-so just making the point that you wouldn't really need to factor in waiting time that heavily because you could just check the timetable and rock up 5 mins before the bus is scheduled to depart. 5 mins would be suitable for both of the first waits for the bus.

But, it isn't just the time it takes that people will take into account but the inefficiency. I can almost guarantee that if there was no direct connection between Ashgrove and The Gap SHS, then at least 50% less students would be on the bus. Why? Because at least 20 kids already get either the 350,352 or GCL down Wardell St from Enoggera and Ashgrove. That would mean they would have to catch 3 buses for a distance of just 6kms which can be covered in around 10 mins: https://www.google.com.au/maps/dir/-27.4292619,152.9894702/-27.4450115,152.9525356/@-27.4391647,152.9629581,3401m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m2!4m1!3e0

True, but that could be covered by a school bus service or a selected service extension just before and just after school times.
Does it need to be there all day and on weekends?

The thing with school buses is if school finishes early or starts late (say exam blocks or other events), there is no bus. But yes, 99/100 school days, that would perfectly work.

Here's a little (well, not really a little) analysis of the school services. There are only 2 dedicated school buses for The Gap High- Route S786 and S788.

Route S786 runs morning and afternoon and S788 in the arvo only.

I regularly catch both. Here's an overview:

S786 (am service): Bardon (Carwoola St) to The Gap SHS via Leworthy St and West Ashgrove (Departs Bardon 8:15, Arrives The Gap SHS 8:35). Patronage is pretty poor because:
a) not many students know about it (they normally get 375 to Bardon Central and change onto 385 or they just get 380 which covers the Waterworks Rd section)
b) At West Ashgrove, route 385 is due at 8:18, Route S786 at 8:26 and the next 385 at 8:33. This is good in theory. But, the 8:01 outbound 385 (West Ashgrove at 8:18) is always around 5 mins late so it either arrives a couple mins before or at the same time as the 786 which cannibalises it. Around 5-7 kids get on at West Ashgrove for the 8:18 385.The same is at Glenquarie Pl- around 5 kids are waiting that get on the 385 unaware the 786 isn't far behind (or if they are aware, don't bother as they don't need to).

On average, lucky to see more than 10 kids on it (S786) whereas approx. 20-30 on 8:01 outbound 385.
Conclusion: morning service could be removed due to low patronage and overlapping services. It could then be put somewhere else on the network as it is in the middle of am peak.
I'll see if I can snap a pic of S786 one day.

S786 (pm service): West Ashgrove to Bardon (Carwoola St) via The Gap SHS, Payne Rd, Glenbrae St, West Ashgrove and Leslie St (Departs West Ashgrove at 3:09, Departs The Gap SHS at 3:16, Arrives Bardon at 3:52).
Between Ashgrove SS and The Gap, you will be lucky to see a fly on it. Between The Gap SHS and Bardon (in particular, the eastern end of Payne Rd after stopping at Dillion Rd), it still doesn't really get anyone also. This is because I could go around to every student who lives along the route and you'd be lucky to get 3 people who knew about it.

Conclusion: Cut between Ashgrove SS and The Gap. Start at The Gap Village at 3:10pm, terminate at Payne Rd Stop 31.
If kids knew about it, I believe it could get upwards of 30 people (from both The Gap SHS and The Gap SS).

Finally, the almighty S788. What a beauty this is. Departs Settlement Rd at 3:05, departs The Gap Village at 3:10, arrives Adelaide St Stop 23 at 3:44 (The Gap SS to City via West Ashgrove, Ashgrove and Red Hill).

First off, I'd like to point out that in the afternoon (heading inbound), Route 385 is due at The Gap Village at 3:09 BUT Route 380 and S788 are both due at 3:10 AND DO THE SAME ROUTE! Who even planned these new timetables? The 380 used to arrive at 3:14 pre Queens Wharf changes which was perfect because it gave us a little breathing space if kids were late out of class. Now, if we miss these, we have to wait till 3:47 (38 mins).

Anyway, the 3:04pm inbound 385 (The Gap Village at 3:09) is probably full 2 out of every 5 services each week. Not a problem, only a 15 min wait. On average, around 60-80 kids (depending on day). At least 30-40 of them get off at Bardon Central to transfer onto a 375 to Bardon.

Next, as the 380 and S788 show up at the same time (usually), it is generally split patronage.

Here is the patronage data for October 2016.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VDDw1mdV1Rp4czZ0h3pYVbNvn4JZu1Rxr_9SeetBJPk/edit#gid=33987364

There is one S788 route per day (afternoon) and there were 20 days that month (therefore 20 services). Across that month, S788 recorded 977 boardings:
977/20=48.85 kids per bus.
That's (on average), at least 4-5 people standing (that is, if every seat is taken). Sometimes, the bus is full (i.e. no more kids able to board- have to wait for trailing 380) but some days it's almost empty (a couple mins behind 380).

Conclusion: Timetable 380 (or 77) to leave TGSHS approximately 5 mins after S788. Helps space out services and patronage. Shows the need for 77 to extend to The Gap- Ashgrove is a very big catchment for students to The Gap High.

Final comments:
-Yes, I did go a bit off topic
-Route S788 is the only service that kids know about- keep the route!
-Cut morning 786 completely and afternoon service between Ashgrove SS and The Gap Village and again between Waterworks @ Panye Rds and Bardon.
-Somehow, find a way, to let kids know about S786 service (whether it's dropping into an assembly or calling admin to put through school notice/newsletter)
-Space out 380 (or 77) better to split patronage.


As for weekends, members of the general public still use between these locations. Also, as mentioned earlier, as Ashgrove will become a KIP, it will attract more people. It is just more desirable to catch one service rather than changing.

People use the 380 for shopping, appointments plus, couple of times, I use the bus to get out to soccer which is handy too.

It's more of a convenience thing really. As the 362 was supposed to run to Ashgrove anyway, it will be at no extra cost.


Extra note: Today (28/8/17), S788 left The Gap Village on time (close to capacity- maybe 50-60 kids) and 380 left 7 mins late at 3:17 with about 50-55 on board. This worked well as the 380 acted as an overflow (which is how it should work- kids get on the school bus whch arrives first and leaves 380 for public).