HSR to Toowoomba Wellcamp Airport - Analysis

[#Metro]

Let's look at testing the idea circulating publicly that Flights + HSR into Toowoomba Wellcamp could be a substitute or alternative to planes flying into Brisbane Airport.
https://twitter.com/terrimbutler/status/1667307455502749696

I will use SYD-BNE to compare.

Flights
QF1412 SYD-WTB depart 07:10 am arrive 8:50 am Duration - 1 hour 40 min
QF905  SYD-BNE depart 07:05 am arrive 8:35 am Duration - 1 hour 30 min

So on raw flight time alone, passengers already have clocked up - 10 minutes penalty for flying into WTB.

We will assume that walk times and baggage collection times are constants and are the same for both airports. We will also assume train frequencies for BNE and WTB are the same. This means we can zero them out from our calculations. This is an estimate; estimates do not have to be perfect to be useful.

The Airtrain from BNE to Roma Street takes 28 minutes.  The passenger from Sydney must spend at minimum, at least 118 minutes to get to Roma Street Station (Plane + train).

Let's see what needs to be true for the Toowoomba HSR connection to work.

Time-Equivalence

I'm going to analyse it inside the time-equivalence framework, which has proved to be very useful.

How fast does the HSR train have to travel to give the same time to get to Roma Street?

The flight into Toowoomba imposes a 10 minute penalty, so this must be paid for by subtracting it from the train trip between BNE-Roma Street to maintain time equivalence.

This means we have 18 minutes left in our time budget to spend on the HSR train from Wellcamp to Roma Street.

We assume a straight HSR alignment from Wellcamp into Toowoomba, and then an alignment broadly following the A2 into Ipswich, then via the existing Ipswich line into Roma Street. Assume tunnels under Toowoomba to get under the mountain range issue.

This distance is around 141 km into Roma Street.

We can then produce an average speed estimate for the train:
18 minutes is 0.3 hours.

So 141 km/0.3 hours = 470 km/hr average train speed.

470 km/hr > 430 km/hr Shanghai Maglev Train, the fastest train in service operation today.

Conclusion

To maintain time-equivalence, such a train would have to exceed the speeds available on the fastest known in service Maglev trains. The service would have to be Maglev, and station spacing would have to be severely limited to accomodate these sort of speeds. Maybe one station at Toowoomba, one at Ipswich, and one at Roma Street.

Special works would have to happen as the narrow gauge on the QR network generally does not see trains operate over 140 km/hr. 210 km/hr is the speed limit record on tilt trains. Or a completely separate new track would need to be built.

While there are faster trains in development, consideration of other factors such as economics and optimal passenger numbers given the few stations possible, plus the opportunity cost of spending money on this (and not other valuable things produced by the public sector) would reveal that the idea is unviable.

[AnonymouslyBad]

I can't read the paywalled CM article, but I'm sure no-one was suggesting the same CBD-to-CBD travel time

Poor Wellcamp though. Desperately wants to be Brisbane's second airport. Not going to happen as long as Gold Coast exists. And yeah, not going to happen as long as there's no decent PT (HSR or otherwise).

[aldonius]

It's not clear to me why the flight time into Wellcamp is necessarily 10 minutes worse. It's about 40 km closer to Sydney as the plane flies.

[#Metro]

Green team need to do a better job of stress testing their ideas before releasing them.

They may have chosen the wrong airport. Fast rail to Gold coast might have been more realistic.

That said, it would also just shift the noise problem somewhere else.

[SurfRail]

Coolangatta already has curfews.

[Gazza]

Wellcamp can be a nice little regional airport just like Maroochydore or Ballina.

But literally nobody in Brisbane has a reason to use it aside from the novelty.
Not even Ipswich.

Focus on Gatton/Warwick/Chinchilla.

Trying to prop it up with hsr is absurd.

[achiruel]

Coolangatta already has curfews.

Does it have spare capacity during it's non-curfewed times?

Personally, the few times I fly (maybe about once every three years or so), I travel to OOL because it's cheaper (in terms of both the airfare, and not having to pay the AirTrain fare), and I'm a budget-conscious traveller, usually with plenty of spare time on my hands during holidays. Might not make sense for the time-poor business traveller, though.

[JimmyP]

It's not clear to me why the flight time into Wellcamp is necessarily 10 minutes worse. It's about 40 km closer to Sydney as the plane flies.

The Sydney to Wellcamp flights are generally done by the Q400, which flies slower than the jets, which accounts for the extra time. A jet service would be similar time as BNE, if not slightly shorter.

[SteelPan]

Greens   

[grahamh]

One thing, as a Toowoomba resident, Wellcamp has is generally clear weather when news reports that BNE is fogged out and arriving planes are going elsewhere. It could be a shorter diversion than Sydney. The proposed Inland Rail would be able to take passengers to Brisbane in a timely manner if track was provided to the airport.

[AnonymouslyBad]

^ Train or no train, flights would routinely divert into Wellcamp if it was the option that made sense. I reckon it's more to do with the lack of facilities out there. If diverting to a capital city, passengers can go straight onto other flights or into airport hotels, a standby crew can fly the plane back if the original crew reach the end of their shift....etc.

[achiruel]

I think BNE flights are usually diverted to OOL if conditions permit. It has international/customs (Wellcamp is international for freight only), and it's usually pretty quick to organise coaches to transfer passengers to BNE. Hotels usually wouldn't be required, as it's a quick transfer (~90 minutes, with light traffic). Wellcamp is > 2 hours.

[HappyTrainGuy]

The airport may have the facilities but it and the airlines won't have the staff or resources on standby to do so. For example there are 2 big passenger planes today each with a 30 minute turn around before it departs. And I was being generous. Rex has one with a capacity of 30-35 passengers and Qantas has a flight with 70-80 max.

[Gazza]

I think BNE flights are usually diverted to OOL if conditions permit. It has international/customs (Wellcamp is international for freight only), and it's usually pretty quick to organise coaches to transfer passengers to BNE. Hotels usually wouldn't be required, as it's a quick transfer (~90 minutes, with light traffic). Wellcamp is > 2 hours.

Or failing that, MCY.

I dont know what vested interests are trying to make Wellcamp a thing.
It's obviously great that a city the size of Toowoomba has its own airport, just like Armidale, or Hervey Bay or Dubbo.

But really, for people in SEQ youve already got two backup airpots, OOL and MCY, and they both have more flights and more competition, they are both closer, and both have more chance of rail in the next 2 decades.

[SilverChased]

I think BNE flights are usually diverted to OOL if conditions permit. It has international/customs (Wellcamp is international for freight only), and it's usually pretty quick to organise coaches to transfer passengers to BNE. Hotels usually wouldn't be required, as it's a quick transfer (~90 minutes, with light traffic). Wellcamp is > 2 hours.

Or failing that, MCY.

So MCY and OOL are already close to Brisbane and have (or will for MCY) have a train line to them. They both also have international (seasonal for MCY?).
This is more than most cities already, why do we need a third option?

[verbatim9]

One thing, as a Toowoomba resident, Wellcamp has is generally clear weather when news reports that BNE is fogged out and arriving planes are going elsewhere. It could be a shorter diversion than Sydney. The proposed Inland Rail would be able to take passengers to Brisbane in a timely manner if track was provided to the airport.

Fog isn't an issue as all airports will eventually be upgraded to Honeywell Smart Approach in the future. Similar to the upgrade for the train signalling system, but for planes.  https://aerospace.honeywell.com/content/dam/aerobt/en/documents/learn/products/navigation-and-radios/brochures/C61-1663-000-000-SmartPathPrecisionLandingSystem-bro.pdf

Honeywell's SmartPath GBAS is the world's only certified satellite-based navigation and precision landing system. The current SmartPath SLS-4000 GBAS is certified to Category I (CAT I) precision landing.

[verbatim9]

Previous discussions on here found that narrow gauge at 160kph using the current NGR/future train fleet was the most appropriate and cost effective from Bne to Toowoomba/Wellcamp

[verbatim9]

One thing, as a Toowoomba resident, Wellcamp has is generally clear weather when news reports that BNE is fogged out and arriving planes are going elsewhere. It could be a shorter diversion than Sydney. The proposed Inland Rail would be able to take passengers to Brisbane in a timely manner if track was provided to the airport.

Fog isn't an issue as all airports will eventually be upgraded to Honeywell Smart Approach in the future. Similar to the upgrade for the train signalling system, but for planes.  https://aerospace.honeywell.com/content/dam/aerobt/en/documents/learn/products/navigation-and-radios/brochures/C61-1663-000-000-SmartPathPrecisionLandingSystem-bro.pdf

Honeywell's SmartPath GBAS is the world's only certified satellite-based navigation and precision landing system. The current SmartPath SLS-4000 GBAS is certified to Category I (CAT I) precision landing.

Landing fees could be considerably cheaper at Wellcamp providing low cost flights and sparking improved competition between all four airports.

[verbatim9]

I can't read the paywalled CM article, but I'm sure no-one was suggesting the same CBD-to-CBD travel time

Poor Wellcamp though. Desperately wants to be Brisbane's second airport. Not going to happen as long as Gold Coast exists. And yeah, not going to happen as long as there's no decent PT (HSR or otherwise).

Wellcamp is curfew free while MCY and OOL both close at 10pm. A second connected curfew free airport can be advantageous

[verbatim9]

Let's look at testing the idea circulating publicly that Flights + HSR into Toowoomba Wellcamp could be a substitute or alternative to planes flying into Brisbane Airport.
https://twitter.com/terrimbutler/status/1667307455502749696

I will use SYD-BNE to compare.

Flights
QF1412 SYD-WTB depart 07:10 am arrive 8:50 am Duration - 1 hour 40 min
QF905  SYD-BNE depart 07:05 am arrive 8:35 am Duration - 1 hour 30 min

So on raw flight time alone, passengers already have clocked up - 10 minutes penalty for flying into WTB.

By the time there is a connection western Sydney Airport will be well and truly operational. Therefore, flights from WTB to Western Sydney could be faster and cheaper. Wellcamp is likely to best service people living in the W and SW catchment of Brisbane as well as Ipswich, which would likely provide similar travel times when travelling to and from Brisbane Airport.

[Gazza]

Wellcamp is curfew free while MCY and OOL both close at 10pm. A second connected curfew free airport can be advantageous

Yeah, but there's not going to be 24/7 fast trains running up there during the curfew, are there?

Landing fees could be considerably cheaper at Wellcamp providing low cost flights and sparking improved competition between all four airports.

OK but for passengers to take advantage of those low landing fees, you need to subsidize the construction and operation of a new rail link from the Toowoomba CBD to the airport.

So if you have money to build and subsidise a rail link, why dont you just directly subsidize OOL and MCYs landing fees, and get the same cheaper flights for people, but in a more convenient location?

Wellcamp is likely to best service people living in the W and SW catchment of Brisbane as well as Ipswich, which would likely provide similar travel times when travelling to and from Brisbane Airport.

Impossible.
I lived in the western suburbs of Brisbane, it would take under an hour to get to the airport via PT, or 30 min drive.

Wellcamp is 135km away, so how is it possible to be faster by road or rail given the distance is over 6X further?
Especially since the western suburbs will get full time express and direct connection to the airport after CRR opens.

[verbatim9]

Ipswich/Brassall to Wellcamp 1 hour 15 - Ipswich to Bne with tolls 50 mins (light traffic)

Using PT to Bne would be considerably longer.

160 Kph from Ipswich Rosewood - Wellcamp would be around 45mins to 60 mins with a couple stops of stops.

[Gazza]

Here is a comparison of flights to Melbourne from the 3 main airports, same day with a few weeks notice.

Indeed you can save around $20 by using the cheaper airports

(And there is a sale fare for just $100 out of MCY, if you are one of the 20 so passengers lucky enough to snag from that block of seats on that flight)

But if you have to travel out of your way and pay for that, is it worth it?

I know some travelers are budget conscious, but sheesh, its only $20 extra, I'm not gonna waste time out of my holiday mucking around flying in/out of a less convenient location, and airport and infrastrucure policy should be planned around the majority.

Besides, most of the cost of the ticket is is going to be for the cost of running the plane.
Speculative savings on landing fees wont be enough to get plane loads of people using inconvenient locations, unless its like Ryanair levels of cheap where its like $30 for a flight.

[Gazza]

Ipswich/Brassall to Wellcamp 1 hour 15 - Ipswich to Bne with tolls 50 mins (light traffic)

Still 25 mins longer to go to Wellcamp.

160 Kph from Ipswich Rosewood - Wellcamp would be around 45mins to 60 mins with a couple stops of stops.

Come on Verbatim9, you can answer this.
What would be the ballpark construction cost of a rail line that could offer a 45-60 min journey from Ipswich to Wellcamp?

[verbatim9]

As the western catchment grows inline with planning initiatives, Wellcamp is likely to be a choice for travellers.

Rbot is only a small fry in this debate. Toowoomba regional council with Federal and State governments likely to push ahead with a electrified rail connection to Toowoomba.

LNP are in favour as well.

[Gazza]

Yeah but what's to say it wouldn't just be a rail line to Toowoomba, with a coach connection to Wellcamp?

A lot of those standalone cheap Ryanair airports in Europe like Brussels South Charleroi or Paris Beauvais just have coaches for passengers for a few flights per day.

It's not computing for me. You want to have a low cost airport with low overheads and low landing fees, but you want it to be serviced with high cost high capacity fast rail infrastructure? Who's paying?

[HappyTrainGuy]

Who spiked the punch???

There is no western catchment between Ipswich and Toowoomba. Yes there are towns in between but travel demand and general travel is vastly different. Do you start running multiple tiers ie express and all stoppers? Span of hours? Frequency? Improve the rail line to Toowoomba then have 4tph to service the 4 daily flights?

There is no demand for rail freight. Inland rail is dead in the water. Even if inland rail went through its biggest beneficiary is interstate freight/coal. It's promoted as improving local freight but trucks will still be the major haulage in the area. Inland rail does not address the freight issues in Queensland.

There is no demand for passenger air flights. https://www.wellcamp.com.au/passengers/fly/flight-status/


And yet hsr and 160kph running is being treated like it's simple when we can't even get a frequent bus network with routes such as the 314, 328, 329, 336, 337, 341.... In an area with more people. And that's even before you dig into issues with the existing rail network and new rollingstock required.

[Gazza]

Improve the rail line to Toowoomba then have 3tph to service the 4 daily flights?

Fixed that for ya

[SilverChased]

What I thought was funny is that one of the four (arrival+departure) daily flights is actually from Brisbane.

[HappyTrainGuy]

Improve the planes per hour frequency brisbane-Toowoomba?

[AnonymouslyBad]

OOL is Brisbane's second airport end of story. Wellcamp's never going to take flights for the purpose of getting people to Brisbane. It's a valuable airport, in terms of *avoiding* Brisbane if that's not your destination. Even its owners have accepted this now.

What I thought was funny is that one of the four (arrival+departure) daily flights is actually from Brisbane.

Yeah - it's a milk run, and certainly doesn't count for our purposes.

Rbot is only a small fry in this debate. Toowoomba regional council with Federal and State governments likely to push ahead with a electrified rail connection to Toowoomba.

This is high tier speculation presented as if it's fact.

Everyone "supports" faster rail to Toowoomba as an aspirational policy statement.

But Toowoomba effectively has zero passenger rail. The Westlander isn't a serious option. There need to be DMUs plying the current alignment a few times a day before any government will even think about spending money on electrification and a new range crossing.

And only then, once there's reasonable rail between Toowoomba and Brisbane CBDs would anyone think about expanding it to what must be the quietest airport relative to size in the country! (<-- my guess)

Yes I think we should've had hourly electric trains between Brisbane and Toowoomba 30 years ago. But we didn't, and we don't, and as much as it would be great to just blast some HSR through the mountains it's not happening    

[verbatim9]

The extended time to travel is due to the long taxiing especially on the Sydney side.

[Gazza]

How many passengers per hour do you expect the rail link to Wellcamp to carry if it became a successful low budget /curfew free airport, Verbatim9?

Lets answer that question first.

[SurfRail]

Previous discussions on here found that narrow gauge at 160kph using the current NGR/future train fleet was the most appropriate and cost effective from Bne to Toowoomba/Wellcamp

I am not sure that is true unless you are only reviewing your own posts.

[verbatim9]

^^It is true, people weren't necessarily in favour of standard gauge while some were in favour of plug in trains that do 70kph. I think your are being highly critical and selective there.

[Gazza]

^^It is true, people weren't necessarily in favour of standard gauge while some were in favour of plug in trains that do 70kph. I think your are being highly critical and selective there.

How many passengers per hour do you think would use a line from Toowoomba City to Wellcamp?

[Gazza]

^^It is true, people weren't necessarily in favour of standard gauge while some were in favour of plug in trains that do 70kph. I think your are being highly critical and selective there.

I think you are being selective too.
Some people mentioned Plug in trains that do 140 kph:
https://www.railway-technology.com/projects/bombardier-talent-3-battery-train/

Can you find a post where someone suggested trains with a top speed of 70?

[HappyTrainGuy]

Selective in calling out nonsense. Only a couple people (including yourself) kept flogging that dead horse.

Just for reference so you know QTMP will be Sunshine Coast-Gold Coast only. They will not deviate out of sector 1.

NGR will be favoured for the suburban network. For a while now the fleet has been moving away from interurban units as Gold Coast-Sunshine Coast blends together. This will apply to the QTMP fleet aswell as they will not have luggage provisions.
 
Only a couple people here believed that NGR or even electrics were the cheapest option to get to Toowoomba while not acknowledging any of the current restrictions in doing so. QR/TMR have even ruled it out as it's cost prohibitive to modify existing limited infrastructure and it locks the corridor into a poor alignment from as far back as the early 2000's when tilt train expansion was being planned. And yes there wasn't enough passenger or freight demand to warrant it back then. If you want to know more about the costs the tunnels can't support further lowering for ohle without significant tunnelling reinforcement.

If you think electrics are the way to go please feel free to mention how it would be set up? Feel free to use the moniker "concept" and "business case".

[SurfRail]

The only way passenger trains are getting to Toowoomba is if a new route is built west of Helidon, and to bypass Grandchester and Laidley.  The only such route on the table is the Inland Rail alignment and that is not going to be electrified, or built with the interests of passenger traffic in mind.

Wellcamp is an airport which has a similar number of daily flights to the number of Route 314 services that run each day.  A taxi rank is perfectly adequate until that changes.  I'm flying to Launceston in April, and there isn't even enough traffic through LST to allow a shuttle bus to be viable from there into town, much less an even less important aerodrome like Wellcamp.

[nathandavid88]

The only such route on the table is the Inland Rail alignment and that is not going to be electrified, or built with the interests of passenger traffic in mind.

Given the way things have been going with Inland Rail, I have my doubts that their planned alignment will even be built anytime soon.