Federal Election - 2016 2nd July

[ozbob]

Latest count and possible outcomes from @benraue #ausvotes https://t.co/plqk4V3K6U pic.twitter.com/dE2JL8vNwm

— Bridie Jabour (@bkjabour) July 8, 2016

[ozbob]

On current trends, LNP will very likely win Flynn and is a better than even chance of winning Herbert and Capricornia. Would mean 77 seats.

— Adam Todd (@_AdamTodd) July 8, 2016

Yes, looks like it will end up 77 seats for L/NP.   A situation I would be happy with.  Will be a real test of the PM's leadership from here though.  They really cannot afford to treat any state with disdain any more. 

[Stillwater]

The electoral take-out is that the NCL is on the National Transport Network, which LNP says it will fund, but which it has not funded in Queensland so far as rail is concerned, preferring to put federal money to Bruce Highway improvements.  The attack is that the NCL is viable for freight trains from Rockhampton north (seats of Capricornia, Dawson and Herbert), but that road transport has the advantage south in the seat of Flynn (based around Gladstone).

Maybe instead of shouting SHOW US THE MONEY like a fishmonger's wife, maybe Ms Trad should say something along the lines of: "The LNP has failed the people of Queensland and the electors of Capricornia and Flynn in particular.  Queensland has been investing in the NCL for years, but it has received no matching federal funding.  State Labor calls on the federal Coalition to put money into the line before it is too late.  Soon, moving freight by rail will be unviable for Rockhampton industry and businesses.  That's already the case for Gladstone enterprises for whom moving freight by road to Brisbane is more cost-competitive.  In a couple of years, Dawson businesses will be in the same boat unless federal funding is forthcoming."

The LNP remains vulnerable in the seats of Flynn, Capricornia and Dawson because of the thin voting margins.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Australian federal election 2016: Turnbull to form government, Shorten predicts another poll by year's end

Malcolm Turnbull is certain to form government, but it will be days before it is clear if the Prime Minister will have to rely on the crossbench to prop up the Coalition.

After receiving the support of Queensland independent Bob Katter on Thursday, Mr Turnbull received the backing of a second crossbench MP, Victorian independent Cathy McGowan, to give supply and confidence on Friday while a third independent, Tasmanian Andrew Wilkie, made a similar pledge.

Those pledges effectively ensured Mr Turnbull should be able to, at the very least, claim 76 seats and minority government and what is now at issue is whether the Coalition can win 76 seats and form a majority government.

Opposition leader Bill Shorten - who received the unanimous backing of the Labor caucus on Friday to remain leader - predicted Australians would head back to the polls by the end of the year, while admitting the Coalition was set to scrape home.

The Prime Minister faces a fierce fight with the Senate to pass key elements of his budget, with Labor, the Greens, and an expanded Senate crossbench likely to force him to negotiate over his 10-year company tax cut plan ...

[ozbob]

ABC --> Antony Green says Coalition likely to win between 75 and 77 seats

[ozbob]

AEC --> AEC progressing the count this weekend

This weekend

The AEC is prioritising its resources where possible to progress the conduct of the count today in the following close seats for the House of Representatives.

    Flynn, QLD – 7 votes
    Capricornia, QLD – 175 votes
    Hindmarsh, SA – 177 votes
    Herbert, QLD – 348 votes
    Cowan, WA – 427 votes
    Forde, QLD – 783 votes

*Margins on the AEC's tally room as at 8am AEST on Saturday 9 July 2016.

The counting of votes will also continue in a number of other seats across Australia throughout the weekend. AEC staff will continue undertaking a range of parallel activities to ensure the orderly and timely progression of counting activities in the coming week.

See below for an outline of the week that was.

[ozbob]

Sydney Morning Herald --> Election 2016: The uncomfortable truth is the media got it wrong. How did we do it?

Not the first time either ...

[ozbob]

Thank gawd ...

L/NP now at 76 seats

> http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Federal Election 2016: Bill Shorten concedes defeat

[ozbob]

Sydney Morning Herald --> Federal election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull claims victory

[ozbob]

Under the circumstances this a better outcome than a minority government captured by mad hatters and the like.

The Turnbull Government does have a reasonable outlook towards the funding of infrastructure projects,  something not done or achieved with the Abbott Government.

So there is some chance that IA might be allowed to get on with it and carry out the investigation and prioritisation of transport projects free from political scam ideology and ' knitting '.   We can only hope.

[ozbob]

So this is where Cross River Rail sits for now ...

... Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in Loganholme last week told Fairfax Media he conditionally supported the Cross River Rail project, but the federal government needed to read the project's business case before committing funds.

Mr Turnbull questioned Mr Shorten's allocation of $800 million without reading the business case.

"What Mr Shorten has done is just opened his mouth and uttered a large sum of money without even reading the business case," Mr Turnbull said.

"That is not a business-like way of dealing with taxpayers' money."

Infrastructure Australia Queensland chief executive Steve Abson on Monday said while a cost-benefit ratio of 1.21 was "not particularly high", the project should go ahead.

"It doesn't sound like a particularly high CBA - 1.2 - but when you look at the scale of the $5.4 billion project then there is obviously significant benefit," Mr Abson said.

Mr Abson said major contractors wanted to know the scale of "value capture", the investment to be drawn from rising land values and fees, included in the project.

"We need to see in the business case, when it is released, what sort of reliance they are having on value capture to fund part of that," he said.

The Palaszczuk Government set up a body called Building Queensland to assess all infrastructure projects valued at more than $50 million when it won office in January 2015.

On Monday Building Queensland released it first-ever list of infrastructure projects, called Building Queensland's June 2016 "pipeline of infrastructure projects".

Not surprisingly, the Cross River Rail project, was on top of that list of projects ...

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/federal-election-2016-queensland-finds-800-million-for-cross-river-rail-20160627-gpsrgr.html

[ozbob]

What does a re-elected Coalition mean for Australia? Our experts have looked at key policy areas: https://t.co/OErOPq8idM

— The Conversation (@ConversationEDU) July 10, 2016

... Infrastructure and transport

Jago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University

The campaign was significant for urbanists: it was the first election in decades in which each major party had a detailed policy vision for cities and urban infrastructure.

The Liberals promised a mix of infrastructure projects, including extending the Gold Coast light rail and supporting the Sydney and Melbourne metro tunnels, as well as various urban road projects such as WestConnex in Sydney.

In urban policy, the Liberals offered a Smart Cities fund to invest in economically innovative urban and suburban redevelopment projects via City Deal financial packages, including one such deal specifically targeting western Sydney.

With a Liberal government we'll likely see the rollout of its already-released Smart Cities policy including new financing arrangements for urban infrastructure combined with sub-metropolitan spatial planning via City Deals. There are still many aspects of this policy to be clarified, such as the extent of government funding that will be contributed to the City Deals.

Overall the 2016 election bodes well for cities, though there are some risks with the Liberals' policy. The government will fund the misguided WestConnex project in Sydney, which will reduce the funds available for public transport. And the City Deals scheme hasn't yet taken shape, but it is important that this funds public transport given the dearth of such infrastructure in Australia's suburbs and the need for suburban place-making through concentrated rail-based hubs.

The Liberals' policy leaves some major urban projects in doubt, such as Brisbane's Cross River Rail. In addition to the physical investment under the Liberals' schemes, new institutional arrangements will likely be needed to provide the co-ordination and program management these presume. What these will look like is not yet known.

The need to radically reduce Australia's dependence on fossil-fuelled urban transport systems is largely overlooked by the Liberals' urban platform, as are the pressing issues of achieving social equity and environmental sustainability in our cities ...

[ozbob]

AEC https://t.co/3TOqw5iyGs
L/NP now on 77 seats#auspol #ausvotes

— Robert Dow (@Robert_Dow) July 13, 2016

[Stillwater]

Interesting perspective from demographer and columnist Bernard Salt.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/bernard-salt-demographer/federal-election-2016-infrastructure-projects-in-marginals-overdone/news-story/7b77e5b98c4f348c38b14c7aae7a2abc

[ozbob]

New Turnbull Government Ministry

[ozbob]

Vote count finished in Herbert. Labor ahead by 8 votes. It goes back for a recount. https://t.co/U7hBiREpd2 pic.twitter.com/tiVyr7JBc6

— Josh Taylor (@joshgnosis) July 18, 2016

[Stillwater]

In the coming days, perhaps the PM could spell out more clearly the division of responsibilities between the:

Minister for Infrastructure and Transport (Darren Chester)
Minister for Urban Infrastructure (Paul Fletcher)
Assistant Minister to the PM on Cities and Digital Transformation (Angus Taylor)

Given that the government, in the past, has said there are regions within cities, presumably the Hon. Fiona Nash MP, the Minister for Regional Development, Local Government and Territories, will have a finger in the pie.

The PM of the day normally writes a letter to each Minister, explaining their duties, and this is made public.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Herbert recount to start on Thursday

[ozbob]

Shadow Cabinet

[ozbob]

Rail Express --> ARA boss tells Turnbull Ministry: Get transport right

Australasian Railway Association chief executive Danny Broad has welcomed the new Turnbull Ministry, but has reminded the nation's leadership team to avoid past failures when it comes to transport and infrastructure.

Prime Minister Turnbull earlier this month announced his new Cabinet, which includes the re-appointment of Darren Chester as transport and infrastructure minister, and the appointment of former major projects minister Paul Fletcher to the new role of minister for urban infrastructure.

Broad welcomed the appointments, especially the addition of Fletcher's new role, saying it reflected Australia's position as one of the world's most urbanised nations.

But the ARA boss also put the new ministry on notice.

"I take this opportunity to remind Minister Chester and Minister Fletcher, along with all their ministerial colleagues, that it is imperative that governments work
together to support the rail sector through collaboration and long-term vision," he said.

"A lack of cohesion between State and Federal Governments has seen sporadic investment and a lumpy demand which stalls the growth sector.

"It is my hope that the Turnbull Government will seize this opportunity to strengthen the rail manufacturing sector; focus on greater harmonisation of standards, regulations and procurement practices across all rail sectors; and tackle the growing freight task, projected to double by 2030.

"There are many challenges ahead for Australia and I look forward to working closely with Minister Chester and Minister Fletcher to realise a rail industry vision with practical and achievable actions."

Broad also welcomed Opposition leader Bill Shorten's decision to re-appoint Anthony Albanese as shadow minister for transport, infrastructure, and cities, and to add regional development to his role as well.

"Anthony Albanese has long been a champion of the rail industry and a strong advocate for his portfolio responsibilities," he said.

"During the recent election campaign Labor made a number of significant and vitally important rail funding commitments that were national as well as state-based in their focus.

"Although Labor has not formed government, it must continue to push the Turnbull Government to come to the party with these important rail infrastructure projects."

[Stillwater]

So where does the Minister for Infrastructure's responsibilities end and the Minister for Urban Infrastructure's responsibilities start?  Has the potential to be messy.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Labor takes seat of Herbert, leaving Malcolm Turnbull with majority of just one seat

[ozbob]

Couriermailmail --> Federal Election: Letter casts doubt over LNP Herbert court challenge

TOWNSVILLE soldiers were given a step-by-step instructional letter on how to vote if they were going to be away on polling day, casting doubt over the LNP's planned court challenge to Herbert.

The circular was sent by Defence to ­military personnel on May 13, almost two months before the election.

Labor said it undermined the LNP's ­primary argument for a court challenge to the seat's result, which Labor's Cathy O'Toole won by 37 votes.

Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten have flown to Townsville since the election as they prepare for a potential by-election. ...

[ozbob]

Senate decided:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/04/pauline-hansons-one-nation-wins-four-seats-in-new-look-senate

Out of 76 Senate seats:

    Coalition (30 seats)
    Labor (26 seats)
    Greens (nine seats)
    One Nation (four seats)
    Nick Xenophon Team (three seats)
    Liberal Democrats (David Leyonhjelm, one seat)
    Derryn Hinch's Justice party (Derryn Hinch, one seat)
    Jacqui Lambie Network (Jacqui Lambie, one seat)
    Family First (Bob Day, one seat)

The Coalition will need 39 votes to pass legislation through the Senate.

[ozbob]

Malcolm Roberts' dog. #OneNation pic.twitter.com/m5z6QIBPcj

— Miss Bailey Woof OAM (@MissBaileyWoof) August 4, 2016

[techblitz]

That looks like one nation sits at number 4 in the power rankings...just below greens,red,blue team

I find it quite ironic how the left-wing media constantly put the jokes on Pauline and never took her seriously in the lead up to the election.....she achieved 4 seats from a shoestring budget,tons of face to face contact via the one nation plane and a basic facebook page......

Well now look who the jokes are on.....

[ozbob]

The political commentary's major question is now ' who is going to implode first?  One Nation or Malcolm ...  ' 

Betting is interesting ..   

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> One Nation senator-elect Malcolm Roberts wrote bizarre 'sovereign citizen' letter to Julia Gillard

[techblitz]

Ah yes his media initiation lol....trying to nitpick anything negative they can find.......they went all out for 2 weeks after Pauline got back in.....

Sky did an indepth interview with senator Roberts recently....nothing transport wise at this point however cost of living is something he plans to tackle via major tax reform.....

http://www.snappytv.com/tc/2514788

[SurfRail]

Short of another DD election occurring, the current senate crossbench will be rather smaller next time around. 

It will be interesting to see how the Senate resets itself (ie which 36 State senators will be leaving at the next election).  It is open for the Senate to decide how that happens and therefore who gets punted.

My prediction would be that the cross bench in 2019 will consist of Greens, NXT and potentially Ms Pauline.  Nobody else currently in there would win at a half-senate election and they will most likely be among the senators lumped with a 3 year term.

[aldonius]

It's up to the Senate itself to determine who gets long and short terms, and hence we have at least 3 possibilities:

• the first six elected from each State get long terms, rest get short terms
• an s282 recount occurs among the 12 elected to simulate a normal half-Senate election
• arbitrary assignment, up to and including "18 Coalition, 18 Labor, mwa ha ha"

Some clever people have written Senate simulators and at least one person has done s282 counts: https://sirgraha.me/senate2016/#/index

For (1), order-elected, we would get: 16 Coalition, 13 ALP, 3 GRN, 2 NXT, Hanson & Lambie.
For (2), recount, we would get (according to the site I linked): 15 Coalition, 12 ALP, 4 GRN, 2 NXT, Hanson, Hinch & Lambie.

So the differences are: Derryn Hinch beats out Scott Ryan (Lib); and Lee Rhiannon (Green) beats out Deborah O'Neill (ALP).

[ozbob]

Crikey --> Rundle: it's not our country that's unstable, it's our political system

We are in limbo, hanging somewhere between single-party government and multi-party agreements, without being able to affirm either. ...

[aldonius]

Ooh, good line.

Culturally, we don't seem to be very comfortable with times when the Government does not have a single-entity majority in the House of Representatives. (Some people, of course, would also like for the government to usually have a majority in the Senate, but thankfully that's sufficiently infrequent that we're used to it being otherwise).

My question to the first type of people: if the HoR always features a majority from the Government, it's basically a rubber stamp. Why not just directly elect an executive and do away with the HoR altogether?

[ozbob]

Australian Greens - Updated portfolio responsibilities, 25th August 2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/06uVw6Q6Hw

— Political Alert (@political_alert) August 25, 2016