Highest Priority Project in SEQ

[dancingmongoose]

Curious as to what people's opinions are as to what the highest priority project is for SEQ.

[SurfRail]

Personally I would say CRR.

If asked to rank these 3 I would go:

1. CRR
2. NCL duplication and realignment
3. GCLR extensions

[James]

Cross River Rail beats all of the above by a long shot. Sure, SCL is important, but there's no way there are going to be many more passenger trains anywhere without CRR. I think it is absolutely disgusting that it has been turned into a never-never political football.

[Stillwater]

I would say CRR.  Having said that, it will be another five years before it is brought up to a point where construction can start.  All other priorities should not hang in limbo in the meantime.

Also, priorities depend on how much money a government has.  If Labor won the lottery tomorrow and first prize was $1 billion, and that money had to be applied to transport infrastructure, should the $1 billion be banked until it attracts another $5 billion in interest to pay for CRR at a higher price than it would cost to built it today?

No.  You buy what you can afford and where the BCR has been tested and affirmed.

We also know that the initial stages of the SCL duplication are 'shovel ready'.  As mining jobs come off the boil, the skills and equipment required for that industry can be transferred directly to the SCL upgrade.  The SCL duplication B-L is in a part of Queensland with high unemployment.  The SCL duplication would contribute to the state economy and help reduce unemployment.

So, CRR has the higher priority, but SCL duplication is the project with a good BCR that can delivery positive benefits more immediately.  Common sense says it should proceed ahead of CRR, on practicality and economic grounds.

[SurfRail]

I suspect the NCL works have the highest chance of getting some money out of the Feds at some point.

[Jonno]

If we are truely looking for short-term projects with massive return then separated bike lanes and prioritised bus lanes with network redesign.

[Stillwater]

CRR benefit-cost ratio was 1.34.  SCL duplication BCR is 2.28.

[#Metro]

BCR is not the only metric to decide between projects. NPV is a more reliable measure as BCR is a ratio - it cannot distinguish between a project that (a) cost $1 and had $2 of benefits, versus a project (b) that cost $1 million and has $2 million of benefits. The first project (a) has only $1 of benefits while the second project has $1 million of benefits and is clearly better than the first, provided that the finance can be arranged.

Of course, real projects are determined using NPV*, Net Political Votes, which is the how many votes can be milked out of the situation multiplied by their value (marginal seats = more valuable) 

CRR is important, but SCL is really in the running because both the NPV and NPV* are likely to be high

[BrizCommuter]

I would also add:

• Ordering enough trains to make maximum peak use of existing infrastructure.
• Installing ERTMS, to increase maximum system capacity of existing infrastructure.

[ozbob]

' buzzing ' the 524 has to be up their somewhere ... just saying ...   

[ozbob]

I would also add:

• Ordering enough trains to make maximum peak use of existing infrastructure.
• Installing ERTMS, to increase maximum system capacity of existing infrastructure.

spot on ...

[Jonno]

Big infrastructure and rollingstock can only be delivered in longer term. Bike lanes and priority lanes can be delivered in months.  ROI in the 1000%'s and immediate increase in active transport especially children and women.  It's a no brainer!!!

[Golliwog]

Not infrastructure, but the need for additional rolling stock is urgent.

[mufreight]

Odds are that the first transport infrastructure project will be the resumption of work on the North Coast line duplication and realignment.
The reasons being that the section from Beerburrum to Glasshouse is shovel ready and tenders could be call in a matter of weeks with either the Horizon or Trackstar alliance as possible starters.
The other reason being that this project has been a long term objective of Independent MP Mr Wellington and from the political viewpoint would go a long way to ensuring his support in the parliament with Labor carrying out a major project in his electorate, it would also place some pressure on the LNP members who have to date done nothing but talk about improving the rail line.   

[red dragin]

MBRL is heading towards the finish line. A lot of railway people available and not too far away.

Theiss/Trackstar seem to be pretty good at what they do.

[ozbob]

SCL has a great chance of moving forward IMHO.

CRR not until there is a change in the Federal Govt or a change in the present Abbott Govt's Infrastructure policies.

The Premier is a supporter of CRR. 

[Stillwater]

What Anna Palaszczuk said on 5 September 2013:

"Cross River Rail is shovel ready," she said.  "It could create thousands of jobs straight away.  It is estimated the project will take 14,000 cars off Brisbane streets and allow an extra 17,000 people to travel on the rail network during peak hours."

CRR progressing would address the Premier's objective of tackling job creation.  The political will needs to be matched by a commitment to fund it; SCL duplication to proceed in the meantime.

[SurfRail]

I suspect there are only 2 ways CRR will happen:

- Change of government federally (the whistling "Dixie" approach)

- Borrowing (which makes eminent economic sense but is a political millstone)

[hU0N]

I'd say borrowing is off the table. The recent election was about a single issue, debt policy. And the decision of the people was to restructure government businesses to increase net earnings and reduce debt. I think that taking on new debt now (regardless how worthwhile) would be seen as an egregious breach of the government's mandate and is therefore unlikely.

[Jonno]

Or redirect budget that has a negative ROI to projects that benefit the overall budget line and/or the economy in general.

[dwb]

Busway ramp improvements to se freeway at Gabba and changes to Melbourne st/Victoria bridge to improve busway throughput, reliability, efficiency and simultaneously improve conditions for those pesky walkers and bike riders Jono keeps banging on about, oh and maybe something on Adelaide St - a strategic bus network review could go hand in hand nicely with some street changes.

[dwb]

Or Northern Bikeway, it should be when money is scarce that smarter lower cost but different solutions are put forward. Let those inner city folk ride their bikes and redirect the leftovers elsewhere

[pandmaster]

Busway ramp improvements to se freeway at Gabba and changes to Melbourne st/Victoria bridge to improve busway throughput, reliability, efficiency and simultaneously improve conditions for those pesky walkers and bike riders Jono keeps banging on about, oh and maybe something on Adelaide St - a strategic bus network review could go hand in hand nicely with some street changes.

What about bus reform? Fix that Victoria Bridge and Melbourne Street conga line right up! It would possibly even take buses off the Captain Cook Bridge.

[dwb]

What about bus reform? Fix that Victoria Bridge and Melbourne Street conga line right up! It would possibly even take buses off the Captain Cook Bridge.

No it wouldn't.

[SurfRail]

^ Agreed.

The CCB is where you actually want to run a fair few buses, particularly from the southern suburbs.  No reason why the fastest trip shouldn't be offered in the off-peak as well as the peak.  Plenty of places to change en route if you want South Bank (Garden City, GU, Buranda).