Election losing swing against Newman in Ashgrove (ReachTEL)

[Mr X]

Newman support slips in Ashgrove

Campbell Newman would lose the seat of Ashgrove if an election was held today, a new opinion poll suggests.
Support for the Premier in his electorate may have slipped by 9 percentage points since his election victory, with a new poll suggesting the two major parties are now neck and neck in the inner-west Brisbane seat.
Last night's survey of 661 residents by automated phone call polling company ReachTEL found the Liberal National Party was sitting on 42.8 per cent of the primary vote, 9 points lower than at the March election.
Labor's support was up 4.5 per cent to 41.1 per cent, while increases were also recorded for the Greens, Katter's Australian Party and "other".
Advertisement 
The results should be interpreted with caution as the stated error margin for the poll means each figure could be up to 3.7 percentage points higher or lower than the true result.
Based on preference flows at the March election, Mr Newman's LNP last night had 48.5 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote in Ashgrove (down 7.2 per cent since he defeated former minister Kate Jones) while Labor was ahead on 51.5 per cent.
Future opinion polls will confirm whether this trend is sustained.
The survey also suggested the majority of Ashgrove residents do not believe the state's financial position is strong.
However, views about the Newman government's plan to reduce the size of the public sector appear evenly divided in the key urban electorate.
Asked to rate the performance of Mr Newman as Queensland Premier, 42.3 per cent of the weighted opinion poll sample gave a positive answer while 47.7 per cent expressed a negative view.
ReachTEL said 26.8 per cent rated his performance as very good, 15.5 per cent as good, 14.6 per cent as poor and 33.1 per cent as very poor.
The remaining 10 per cent of respondents did not express a view.
Respondents were then told the Newman government had pledged to reduce the size of the Queensland public service to help reduce the state's debt.
Asked for their views on the move, 45.3 per cent said they supported it while 46 per cent did not support it.
Most people did not think the state government's financial position was strong but the most common view was that it was "average" (38.1 per cent).
About 19.1 per cent believed the state's financial position was poor and an additional 14.9 per cent rated it as very poor.
However, 23.7 per cent stated the financial position was strong with only 4.2 per cent venturing to suggest it was very strong.
In the primary vote stakes, Katter's Australian Party was sitting on 4 per cent in Ashgrove, The Greens had 9.7 per cent of the vote while 2.5 per cent backed "other".
A ReachTEL spokesman said the poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.7 per cent and the answers provided by the 661 residents surveyed were weighted to reflect Ashgrove's age and gender breakdown.
The poll comes in the lead up to the September budget and amid well-publicised moves by the Newman government to cut costs and cut public sector jobs in the push to reduce the deficit.
The poll was taken a day after a front-page story in The Sunday Mail suggested the successful BreastScreen Queensland program would be dismantled as part of LNP cost cutting.
Mr Newman and government figures strenuously rejected the claim, saying while some elements of BreastScreen would return to the regions, none of the $44 million breast cancer screening funding would be cut.
The next state election is not due until 2015.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/newman-support-slips-in-ashgrove-20120806-23qff.html#ixzz22o4APhdF

Survey results -> http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/campbell-newmans-support-in-ashgrove-slips

[Stillwater]

Oh to be living in the electorate of Ashgrove now that Kate Jones has announced that she will stand for selection for the ALP against Premier Campbell Newman.  Stand by for a whole host of goodies to come the way of Ashgrove voters.

Perhaps RailBOT should call for state government to trail with BT the use of feeder buses to railway stations along the route, not that the FG line has 15-minute frequency.  Who knows, it might happen.

[#Metro]

I feel sorry for the residents of Ashgrove who, last time around, were harassed by crowds of party hacks (both sides) and had their letterboxes turned into election rubbish bins.

Deep breath, here we go.. again! Maybe Maroon CityCat has a chance...

[ozbob]

Ashgrove registered go cards might get a free after one cap ...   

Roll out the barrels!

[ozbob]

Some have suggested CanDo might abandon ship and head for a safe GC seat.  Might mean good news for the GC light rail ... 

[#Metro]

STATE ELECTORAL DISTRICT OF ASHGROVE
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/profiles/ashgrove/map.pdf

[#Metro]

There are two bus reform proposals that could be implemented that run straight through Ashgrove that would be wildly popular with the electorate in terms of improved bus service.

Not going to reveal them yet, but would be worth a trumpet when done

[newbris]

Oh to be living in the electorate of Ashgrove now that Kate Jones has announced that she will stand for selection for the ALP against Premier Campbell Newman.  Stand by for a whole host of goodies to come the way of Ashgrove voters.

Perhaps RailBOT should call for state government to trail with BT the use of feeder buses to railway stations along the route, not that the FG line has 15-minute frequency.  Who knows, it might happen.

Since the last state election the bus services in the Ashgrove (& Red Hill) part of the electorate have been slashed by the LNP council so there is now a worse off-peak service than the acreages on the way to Moggill ...if this is pork barrelling I don't want it...

Caveat: Apart from the glider of course that only services Ashgrove Village.

[James]

Since the last state election the bus services in the Ashgrove (& Red Hill) part of the electorate have been slashed by the LNP council so there is now a worse off-peak service than the acreages on the way to Moggill ...if this is pork barrelling I don't want it...

Caveat: Apart from the glider of course that only services Ashgrove Village.

But regular buses aren't as sexy as buses in maroon wrap with 'CityGlider' and a picture of a sugar glider on the sides, ergo, it is a gain. Plus, half of Waterworks Road is outside the electorate anyway, and cutting those services meant even more passengers on the "brilliant" MaroonGlider, meaning it can be touted as a success even more.

The point about the cows is moot really, practically everybody in Brisbane has a worse service than the cows in Pinjarra Hills, god knows who thought BUZ all the way out to Moggill was a good idea. In terms of bus access, you're better off being a cow than living in an inner-city suburb like Bulimba, Yeronga or even Toowong!

I would hate to be in the electorate of Ashgrove. Last time it was so bad you'd swear that Brisbane didn't exist outside of Ashgrove/The Gap.

[BrizCommuter]

Oh to be living in the electorate of Ashgrove now that Kate Jones has announced that she will stand for selection for the ALP against Premier Campbell Newman.  Stand by for a whole host of goodies to come the way of Ashgrove voters.

Perhaps RailBOT should call for state government to trail with BT the use of feeder buses to railway stations along the route, not that the FG line has 15-minute frequency.  Who knows, it might happen.

Or better stlll campaign to eliminate the FG Line am peak 3-cars sets and fill in the pm peak 15 mins gaps.
By the way, at the last election Kate Jones was campaigning outside Enoggera station at least twice a week, Campbell Newman was only spotted there once.

[aldonius]

Or better stlll campaign to eliminate the FG Line am peak 3-cars sets and fill in the pm peak 15 mins gaps.

Which begs the question - if we had to pick one, which should it be? My preference is for gap-filling; a packed train beats no train. (Says who? Everyone on it.)

Might be able to get away with running the 5:03 or 5:11 ex-Central (which are Roma St & Coopers Plains starters respectively) as 3-car sets, then putting the other half through at 5:19. It would of course be packed, but better than nothing eh?

[James]

It is very unlikely I would ever vote for a candidate that did not live in my electorate and especially when they are moved like this. The sooner the AEC bans this the better. You should be a permanent resident of the electorate you plan to represent prior to registering and maintain that up until the election day. At the next election should you move you should have to nominate for a new seat where you live.

Both parties (especially minor parties) are guilty of this. A good example was Dr Anthony Lynham. He's a chardonnay socialist who had his office on the southside and lived in Chandler. Before Chris Davis resigned he probably couldn't find Stafford on a map. He only bothered to move (and even then, only renting) 2 weeks before the election. I believe Greens candidates in our elections have also generally not been locals either, same with PUP.

With regards to banning - it is difficult to ban people as people may move for circumstantial reasons, or boundaries may change and cause them to now live outside the electorate through no fault of their own. Possibly a clause saying 'live either in the electorate or in a neighbouring electorate' may be acceptable.

[BrizCommuter]

So if Campbell gets parachuted into Moggill (personally I don't think it will happen), will we be seeing a Moggill Glider, or BellbowrieCat ?

[ozbob]

Premier is remaining in Ashgrove.  Word is Dr Rowan will be the LNP nomination for Moggill.

Ashgrove residents you might be looking good for a travel free after one paid journey cap ..   

[ozbob]

^

Brisbanetimes --> Premier Campbell Newman rules out Moggill move after Flegg axing

[newbris]

Premier is remaining in Ashgrove.  Word is Dr Rowan will be the LNP nomination for Moggill.

Ashgrove residents you might be looking good for a travel free after one paid journey cap ..   

Good  ...might make up for paying $1 per km to get to town