Article: Fares up, patronage down on Brisbane buses

[ozbob]

From the Brisbanetimes click here!

Fares up, patronage down on Brisbane buses

Fares up, patronage down on Brisbane buses
TONY MOORE
February 16, 2010 - 5:08AM

Brisbane commuters have rejected last month's public transport fare hike, with two per cent fewer passengers catching the bus in January compared with the same period last year.

Fares rose up to 20 per cent for Go Card users and up to 40 per cent for paper ticket holders on January 4.

Brisbane City Council figures released yesterday showed 103,812 fewer people caught a bus last month than they did in January 2009.

The drop in bus patronage was evidence of a failing Go Card system, Shadow Transport spokeswoman Fiona Simpson told brisbanetimes.com.au last night.

"This is the smoking gun of the fiasco of the Go Card implementation," she said.

"Anna Bligh and [Transport Minister] Rachel Nolan keep saying it has been a success, but it has been an unmitigated disaster."

Last month, council buses carried 5,283,177 million passengers, down 1.93 per cent from the 5,386,989 passengers recorded in January 2009.

"The Minister signed off on the fare rises and pushed the phase out of the paper tickets in favour of a system that clearly is still faulty," Ms Simpson said.

But Ms Nolan said a number of factors influenced bus patronage.

"Commuters have asked for a fast and reliable bus service and that is what these fare changes are all about," she said.

Ms Nolan said she would ask Translink to investigate the figures this morning.

About 35 per cent of commuters use Go Cards, according to Queensland Transport, meaning 70 per cent still use paper tickets.

However, it is understood there was a rush on Go Cards in January after the new fare structure was announced.

Transport lobby group Rail: Back on Track spokesman Robert Dow said the two per cent drop was due to the fare increase.

"Well that [increase] is significant because that is the same time cycle," he said.

"The number of buses are increasing and this is is the first time we have had a fall."

Mr Dow said the two per cent drop corroborated anecdotal evidence his organisation had heard from the commuting public.

"We have had feedback that people have gone back to their cars at the Royal Brisbane and Royal Children's hospitals because of problems they have had on the Inner Northern Busway," he said.

"And we have had feedback from seniors who say they have restricted their trips because of the fare increases."

Changes to bus routes announced by Ms Nolan last week will meant an extra 1060 extra bus trips past the two hospitals when the bus route changes come into effect later this month

[#Metro]

What an excellent report! Now I can find out something important we all wanted to know: How important is price when compared to other levers such as frequency.

Ridership decrease is to be expected as the fares have changed, but the frequency has not been improved as the new 301 000 new seats have not actually come into effect yet (due to mis-planning, the should have begun when the fares changed!).

The fare increases were 20% for GoCard and 40% for paper tickets, taking the worst case (assuming the lowest % rise causes the greatest loss of passengers) this would mean that:

* a 20% fare rise gives a 2% reduction in passengers (all else equal, i.e. no change to service level)
or a 1% change in fares changes patronage by -0.1% (Linear Elasticity).

This is vanishingly small when compared to the size, overall number of commuters and the scale of the price rise (20%). (hopefully I've calculated this right!!!). This number is also roughly consistent with bus fare elasticities reported by Dargay and Hanley (1999) for UK Bus Fare Elasticities.

What matters is frequency-as the price lever is quite weak, and now I have the evidence to show that it is so. If Ms Nolan keeps her promise and rolls out more frequent services paid for by the fare increases, the patrons should quickly return.
----
References
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohring_effect
Our friends at the Victoria Transport Policy Institute have prepared an article on price elasticity which incorporates the Dargay and Hanley (1999) reference. Find it here www.vtpi.org/elasticities.pdf

[#Metro]

A significant proportion of consumers 'disengage' if they perceive cost structures to be
too complex; this disengagement sometimes leads them to avoid exposure to that cost but
sometimes leads them simply to pay-up regardless.

There is also a good case for fare capping. The current system isn't so intuitive and this will have an effect of people who decide whether they want to use PT and ditch their car.

www.vtpi.org/elasticities.pdf

[ozbob]

The net 2% fall is actually greater in real terms when the underlying growth trend is considered.  

I perceive a falling off on rail patronage.  Some comments from others around the network to that effect as well.  

It will be interesting to see figures on that when available as well.

The real tests will be next week as Universities ramp up.

[#Metro]

I perceive a falling off on rail patronage.  Some comments from others around the network to that effect as well.

If one wants to increase prices then frequency must also be increased to make up for it...The rail network can be expected to be the worst hit because the frequencies there are 30 min off peak and new services (such as a train on all major lines every 15 or 20 minutes) is probably not coming for a while.

[somebody]

The net 2% fall is actually greater in real terms when the underlying growth trend is considered.  

If you look at the latest translink tracker, patronage was flatlining in the latest available quarter.

* a 20% fare rise gives a 2% reduction in passengers (all else equal, i.e. no change to service level)
or a 1% change in fares changes patronage by -0.1% (Linear Elasticity).

This is vanishingly small when compared to the size, overall number of commuters and the scale of the price rise (20%). (hopefully I've calculated this right!!!). This number is also roughly consistent with bus fare elasticities reported by Dargay and Hanley (1999) for UK Bus Fare Elasticities.

That's exactly right.  Service quality overall (which is more than just frequency) is the most important factor.

[ozbob]

Page 4 and 5 http://download.translink.com.au/about/0910q1_tracker.pdf  overall trend still going up ...

Yes, not as dramatic but trend was still up.  What is interesting is the drop in January 2010 is relative to January 2009.

[somebody]

Page 4 and 5 http://download.translink.com.au/about/0910q1_tracker.pdf  overall trend still going up ...

Yes, not as dramatic but trend was still up.  What is interesting is the drop in January 2010 is relative to January 2009.

Here's the text from page 4:
"Overall bus patronage remained at 30.4
million trips across the network during
the fi rst quarter. Strong growth of almost
10 per cent was recorded by operators
in Logan, Caboolture/Bribie Island and
Ipswich.
Patronage on CityCat and CityFerry
services were down by 130,000 trips to
1.75 million on the same period last year.
Overall train patronage was down about
4.7 per cent compared to the previous year
– 16.4 million down to 15.7 million trips."

So, trains & ferries DOWN, while buses are flatlining, versus the Jul-Sep 2008 quarter.

Are you sure you aren't getting confused with the annual trends?

I guess it will be nearly 6 months until we have the Translink Tracker for Jan-Mar 2010.

[#Metro]

I think the focus should be on getting the money allocated to services.
I can't see the government reversing its position now.

Trains: 20 min frequency major lines in the off peak, both ways as a start (1 extra service each way)
If there are issues with this, then as close to it as possible (may need to have shortened route services). 2 tier timetable for destinations broadly outside 30 minutes.

Buses
Everywhere within 7km of the City should have a bus every 20 minutes in the off peak.
New BUZ services/CityGliders...

all in the timetabling thread...

[verbatim9]

I think the focus should be on getting the money allocated to services.
I can't see the government reversing its position now.

Trains: 20 min frequency major lines in the off peak, both ways as a start (1 extra service each way)
If there are issues with this, then as close to it as possible (may need to have shortened route services). 2 tier timetable for destinations broadly outside 30 minutes.

Buses
Everywhere within 7km of the City should have a bus every 20 minutes in the off peak.
New BUZ services/CityGliders...

all in the timetabling thread...

The 300 should be a buz when I lived in Ascot getting in and out of the place by public transport on weekends was a nightmare. It was on taxis after 10.30 at night. Surely they can amend the timetable to have the busses running to Ascot at least till 1.00am each night

[ozbob]

Yes, I am looking at the long term trends.  Still a drop is a drop ...

Makes TT's highlighted  forumulae look rather neat hey what?

[somebody]

Yes, I am looking at the long term trends.  Still a drop is a drop ...

Makes TT's highlighted  forumulae look rather neat hey what?

I actually think that Translink wrote the document in such a way as to try to hide their current performance, so I'm not surprised.  It takes careful reading to find out what's actually going on.